17 Market Predictions for 2024

One space I cowl in my outlook for 2024 is the teachings of Raymond Lo and the way he sees the upcoming 12 months of the Dragon.

Part of my feedback on his evaluation relies on this assertion by LO:

“Many has the misunderstanding that the Dragon is glamorous auspicious animal and can at all times deliver good luck. On the contrary, Dragon and Canine within the 12-animal system is known as the “Gate to Heaven and Hell” or the “Web of Heaven and Hell”.

Therefore, 2024 might see positive aspects. We’re agnostic and positively trying to charts. Particularly junk bonds , small caps , and retail .

Apparently, customers whether or not you name it revenge spending or YOLO, are nonetheless very a lot within the sport. Disposal earnings sturdy

With sure areas of inflation coming down-although nonetheless larger than what numbers recommend. The dialogue of the speed hike cycle on the finish is controversial

Statistically, there was a significant monetary failure on the finish of every charge hike cycle since 1965.

At the moment, the catalyst for monetary stress might be the rising debt, rising spending, geopolitical points impacting provide chain, and a contentious election 12 months.

And something that gooses inflation will cease the Fed from cutting-

January 2024 will see a brand new 6-month calendar vary reset-this will likely be crucial this time with many predicting the top of the primary quarter with a sell-off.

Though the stats are on the facet of a better market, this 12 months of the dragon suggests some irritation that would flip the market on its facet with extra volatility.

17 Predictions:

If Dec closes below 470, January and 460 are pivotal
If SPY simply hangs in there and doesn’t fail, the small caps and retail can shine. Nonetheless, gravity at all times takes over if the sell-off is extra extreme.
Fed retains charges between 4-6% and s maintain a spread between 92-105 (until there’s a recession)
EVs would be the worst place to take a position
Development will go nowhere-not fail or rally-more sideways
Whereas alt vitality might make a comeback
Tendencies for 2024-gold and silver begin their final hurrah-we plan to trip the wave, exit after which transfer on
Industrial metals will do properly
goes to 47k then drops to 37k for the beginning of a brand new rally into the halving
and not price buying and selling in the intervening time
Customers that spent the final ½ of 2023 in YOLO or revenge spending, go into vainness mode 2024-Style, magnificence, skincare, elective surgical procedures, self-help, perhaps courting shares do well-all about me!
Banks might do properly however we have to see regional banks lead
We like Media shares SPOTIFY (NYSE:) (NYSE:)
Infrastructure extra via manufacturing and engineering-especially automation
Healthcare: We see large pharma placing extra strain on govt for medical hashish use-ABBV high decide
Rising markets-GREK subsequent leg up. Watching FXI and VNM
Commodities keep muted till the 2nd ½ of the 12 months. Why?

Geopolitics: provide chain, labor issues-possible recession adopted by extra inflation
Pure Disasters
Debt and authorities spending
in a downtrend
Misstep by the Fed in lowering charges too quick or protecting charges flat whereas CPI picks up
Pre-election year-generally constructive for shares esp. worth

ETF Abstract

S&P 500 (SPY) 480 all-time highs 465 underlying help
Russell 2000 (IWM) 200 pivotal
Dow (DIA) Wants to carry 370
Nasdaq (QQQ) 410 pivotal
Regional banks (KRE) 47 help 55 resistance
Semiconductors (SMH) 174 pivotal help to carry this month
Transportation (IYT) Wants to carry 250
Biotechnology (IBB) 130 pivotal help
Retail (XRT) The longer this stays over 70.00 the higher!