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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Readers, this Water Cooler shall be a bit brief. I travelled late final night time, and anticipate some calls when Water Cooler is completed. Extra tomorrow! –lambert
Hen Track of the Day
Guadalupe Junco, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico. “Territorial tune of a male Guadalupe Junco, singing from a excessive perch…. Mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) heard within the background.”
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Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
“Maine decide defers determination on conserving Trump on US state poll till Supreme Court docket weighs in” [Anadolu Agency]. “Superior Court docket Justice Michaela Murphy mentioned Secretary of State Shenna Bellows ought to maintain off on implementing her determination on Trump’s electoral eligibility till the highest US courtroom points its ruling after agreeing to take up an analogous case from Colorado earlier this month…. Bellows in late December disqualified Trump from showing on the state’s 2024 Republican main poll in response to challenges delivered to the ex-president’s nomination…. Trump appealed the ruling to the Maine Supreme Court docket, setting the stage for Wednesday’s ruling…. Murphy dominated that Maine’s determination needs to be delayed till after the Supreme Court docket weighs in on an analogous case from Colorado, saying the remand is ‘within the public curiosity.’” •
2024
Lower than a 12 months to go!
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“Choose threatens as well Donald Trump from courtroom over loud speaking as E. Jean Carroll testifies” [Associated Press]. “Donald Trump was threatened with expulsion from his Manhattan civil trial Wednesday after he repeatedly ignored a warning to maintain quiet whereas author E. Jean Carroll testified that he shattered her fame after she accused him of sexual abuse. Choose Lewis A. Kaplan instructed the previous president that his proper to be current on the trial shall be revoked if he stays disruptive. After an preliminary warning, Carroll’s lawyer mentioned Trump might nonetheless be heard making remarks to his legal professionals, together with ‘it’s a witch hunt’ and ‘it truly is a con job.’ ‘Mr. Trump, I hope I don’t have to think about excluding you from the trial,’ Kaplan mentioned in an trade after the jury was excused for lunch, including: ‘I perceive you’re most likely very anticipating me to try this.’ ‘I’d adore it,” the Republican presidential front-runner shot again, shrugging as he sat between legal professionals Alina Habba and Michael Madaio on the protection desk.’” • (!!).
“Georgia Prosecutors Ought to Go, However That Gained’t Essentially Finish the Case Towards Trump” [Jonathan Turley, The Messenger]. Trump is fortunate in his enemies: Fulton County District Lawyer Fani Willis “has seemingly imploded with an moral scandal which, in contrast to Trump’s prior claims, seems maybe to be extra well-founded, because it seems in an official courtroom submitting. It entails stories of an intimate relationship with Nathan Wade, appointed by Willis as lead prosecutor within the Trump case. Whereas a recusal or elimination of Willis could delay the case, it won’t finish the authorized risk for Trump. Willis is accused of getting a romantic relationship with Wade when she appointed him on this historic prosecution of a former president. Wade has no expertise in racketeering regulation, but he reportedly was paid greater than an professional on Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) circumstances. Willis and Wade allegedly went on lavish holidays collectively, and the prices allegedly had been coated by Wade, who has obtained practically $654,000 in authorized charges since January 2022 — authorised, in the end, by Willis…. If these allegations are true, Willis is not only outdoors of the moral navigational beacons. She is off the map…. A much less apparent query is how their recusal might affect the Trump prosecution. Some analysts counsel the scandal removes the risk to him in Fulton County. That, nonetheless, isn’t more likely to be true. The treatment on this occasion for any unethical conduct, if confirmed, often is the elimination of the prosecutors, not the dismissal of an in any other case legitimate prison case. Whereas I’ve been vital of Willis’ case in opposition to Trump, her conduct doesn’t change the underlying allegations in opposition to the previous president. The elimination of Willis and Wade might additionally immediate the switch of the case to a unique jurisdiction. Any of those modifications might take time, after all, and the delay would play to Trump’s benefit. But, the case nonetheless would go on. Probably the most intriguing query is whether or not a brand new prosecutor would proceed to assist this controversial RICO case.”
Jamie Dimon selecting a winner?
BREAKING – EXPLOSIVE: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon tells CNBC individuals are voting for Trump as a result of he was proper in regards to the financial system, immigration, and China, says individuals needs to be a bit extra respectful of MAGA individuals. They know what they’re doing. WATCH pic.twitter.com/fMHgLrZF0d
— Simon Ateba (@simonateba) January 17, 2024
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He’s not fallacious, is he:
Iowa’s over, and there’s nonetheless just one one who’s ever defeated Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/uE1tylKuGf
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) January 16, 2024
After all, with a bench just like the Democrats, there’s one other slugger proper behind Joe within the line-up:
What an extremely inspiring message, delivered with such panache, ardour and energy: https://t.co/B4GFUpdVlY
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) January 17, 2024
Hair like one among Hillary Clinton’s experiments, and am I the one one who’s reminded of Pelosi’s eyes?
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IA: “Actually, what did Kim Reynolds anticipate?” [Bleeding Heartland]. “Governor Reynolds spent a lot of the final two months campaigning for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and starred in a television advert on his behalf. But her backing didn’t transfer the needle; polls confirmed assist for DeSantis between the mid-teens and low 20s in Iowa for the final six months. As anticipated, he completed about 30 factors behind former President Donald Trump on the January 15 caucuses. DeSantis did eke out a second-place end with 21.2 % of the vote, about 2 factors forward of Nikki Haley. However that extra seemingly stemmed from the By no means Again Down tremendous PAC’s intensive discipline operation, which was superior to what Individuals for Prosperity Motion delivered for Haley.” “Individuals for Prosperity Motion.” Is there an algo that generates PAC names? Extra: “Selzer & Co’s Iowa Polls for the Des Moines Register, NBC Information, and Mediacom confirmed in October and once more in December that probably caucus-goers believed Trump might win the subsequent basic election. Even a majority of DeSantis supporters felt that approach. And actually, why would Iowa Republicans imagine Trump can’t win in November? They don’t assume he misplaced to Biden final time.” • Good level!
IA: “How Trump dominated Iowa — and held again DeSantis and Haley” [WaPo]. “Folks near DeSantis described looking in useless for messages in opposition to Trump with focus teams — his feedback about abortion, his failure to complete the border wall or overturn Obamacare. All of the whereas, Trump trounced the marketing campaign in information protection, a bonus that DeSantis’s staff tracked intently. Even when DeSantis did a televised city corridor, ‘half of that occasion remains to be [Trump’s] as a result of the questions are about him,’ a DeSantis adviser mentioned.
‘The indictments crushed us,’ mentioned one one who commonly talked to DeSantis. ‘We kind of joked that he wanted to get a mug shot to compete with Trump.’” And as for Haley: “At practically each level within the marketing campaign, Haley had chosen to undertake a method diametrically against what DeSantis was doing. Her staff, at each SFA and the marketing campaign, was led by a single crew of previous pals and companions who operated as a complete, with out leaks. Even the Iowa press spokespeople sought approval from Charleston headquarters earlier than speaking to nationwide reporters. Whereas DeSantis leaned closely on coverage, Haley centered on massive themes of generational change and political type. Because the Florida governor’s allies introduced a $100 million floor recreation, Haley ran on a shoestring, flying industrial for months, generally with only a single adviser. The DeSantis operation rented and wrapped three totally different buses — two for the tremendous PAC and one for the marketing campaign — whereas she had none. However the charisma that drove her marketing campaign was not with out fault. It was a easy query that threw Haley off: What brought about the Civil Struggle? She rambled and didn’t point out slavery as a trigger till the next day. Individuals who knew her in South Carolina mentioned she had all the time been cognizant to attraction to voters who is perhaps skeptical of an Indian American girl. Republicans and Democrats alike panned the reply. Even Trump mocked her, calling it “three paragraphs” of hokum, although he used one other extra colourful phrase. With only a day to go earlier than the Iowa caucuses, Iowans hearken to Haley communicate to a big crowd at Nation Lane Lodge in Adel, Iowa, on Sunday. She additionally struggled to broaden her coalition past reasonable, prosperous and college-educated voters.” • Seems the Republicans have a weak bench, too.
NH: “Ron DeSantis shifts marketing campaign away from New Hampshire days earlier than the first, AP sources say” [Associated Press]. “Ron DeSantis has determined to shift his presidential marketing campaign away from New Hampshire simply six days earlier than the state’s first-in-the-nation Republican main whereas his main tremendous PAC executes one other spherical of layoffs, strikes that replicate the Florida governor’s quickly shrinking path to the 2024 GOP nomination. DeSantis gained’t ignore the state fully over the approaching days, however he’s reallocating the vast majority of his workers to South Carolina, the house state of rival Nikki Haley, with its main in simply over a month. That’s in line with senior marketing campaign officers who spoke to The Related Press on the situation of anonymity to share inside discussions. On the identical time, the pro-DeSantis tremendous PAC By no means Again Down has transferred a number of of its Iowa staffers to different early states, whereas shedding the remaining.” • Is not sensible in any respect, except a donor is dictating the transfer and/or DeSantis is determined for money.
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Chief White Home Correspondent at In the present day Information Africa, however I feel a one-man present. Nonetheless:
All the time right here for volatility stans!
Democrats en Déshabillé
“Senator Tammy Baldwin’s Chief to Lengthy COVID Sufferers: Cease Annoying Me or Else” [The Gauntlet]. “Senator Tammy Baldwin, one of many two remaining HELP Commitee members who haven’t but dedicated to attending the [Long Covid] listening to, expressed through her workers that the thousands and thousands of sufferers determined for therapy are fairly the annoyance to her and her staff. ‘I’m attempting to be useful,’ Chief of Employees Ken Reidy says with badly hid irritation, happening to condescendingly clarify to journalist and activist Joshua Pribanic, ‘I’ve about 600 emails in my inbox out of your group, from individuals from Scotland, from California, from Maryland. Um. Senator Baldwin represents Wisconsin. If I had each group that simply blasted my e-mail inbox the place I do my skilled work, I’d not have the ability to do my job.’” • Effectively, you’re definitely doing it now…. (Additionally, I’ve all the time had the sense that Senators have, and must have, a extra nationwide perspective than Home members, who signify “the district.” That’s why Senators look within the mirror and see a President!)
“White Home referred to as Hutchinson to apologize for DNC remarks” [Politico]. Who? Anyhow: “White Home chief of workers Jeff Zients referred to as former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson on Wednesday morning to apologize after the Democratic Nationwide Committee launched a snarky assertion to mark the tip of the Republican’s presidential bid. Hutchinson, who ran a marketing campaign designed to tackle and criticize Donald Trump, dropped out of the race after a sixth-place within the Iowa caucuses this week. The Democratic Nationwide Committee initially responded by calling his withdrawal ‘a shock to these of us who might’ve sworn he had already dropped out.’ The assertion drew quick backlash from individuals who mentioned it was a gratuitous try and humiliate Hutchinson. Zients’ name to Hutchinson successfully marked a repudiation of the DNC — and a very swift clean-up job by the White Home. The chief of workers’s damage-control effort displays the central significance of anti-Trump Republicans within the 2024 marketing campaign.” • Clearly, the By no means Trumpers ought to merely be put beneath the DNC umbrella; that might put an finish to those co-ordination difficulties.
“Eric Adams’s Authorized Protection Belief Lawyer Thanks Hell Gate for Bringing Questionable Donations to His Consideration” [Hell Gate]. “The foundations that govern these [legal defense] trusts, which had been created by the Metropolis Council in 2019 to permit elected officers to lift cash to deal with investigations which can be unrelated to their official jobs, set clear boundaries for individuals who need to donate. The utmost contribution quantity is $5,000, and the belief can’t settle for cash from the elected official’s subordinates, or individuals who have enterprise dealings with the Metropolis—outlined as individuals whose names are within the Metropolis’s Doing Enterprise Database—as of the date of their contribution. For the latter group, their spouses are prohibited from donating as properly. Donors should additionally submit a signed assertion affirming they’re complying with the regulation. However in line with the paperwork filed by Mayor Adams’s authorized protection belief on Tuesday, two $5,000 donations got here from the spouses of people who find themselves within the Doing Enterprise Database. Trina Cayre and Sarah Cayre gave a complete of $10,000 to the fund on December 19, 2023, in line with the belief’s disclosures; Trina is married to Joseph Cayre, the billionaire behind the true property firm Midtown Equities, and Jack Cayre, Joseph’s son, is married to Sarah. Each Joseph and Jack Cayre’s names seem within the Metropolis’s Doing Enterprise Database. The Cayres’ portfolio additionally consists of Casa Cipriani, which is among the mayor’s favourite personal golf equipment.” • Whoops. I don’t know the way the Democrats managed to waste a cop with a million-watt smile, however they appear to have performed so.
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
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Covid is Airborne
Strep, just like the flu and RSV, is airborne:
Strep A, Group A Streptococcusis (Streptococcus pyogenes), is airborne.
Has been identified to be airborne since at the least 1949, through Coburn and Younger’s seminal work contact tracing within the navy throughout WWII.https://t.co/6AeZ90Op7ahttps://t.co/3h3p6FCAeW#STREPaISairborne. pic.twitter.com/fy9tpm5Ysw
— Lazarus Lengthy (@LazarusLong13) January 17, 2024
Sequelae
“Can we lower street deaths to zero by 2050? Present developments say no. What’s going fallacious?” [The Conversation]. Australia. “However whereas we had been making good progress at decreasing street trauma, this has stalled lately, with Australian street deaths rising to ranges not seen in practically a decade…. For the primary time in many years, we’ve seen a sustained enhance in street deaths in Australia and different nations resembling the US…. [T]he assumption that extra individuals are dying as a result of there are extra automobiles is, at greatest, a partial clarification… The post-pandemic knowledge exhibits a number of indicators of declining street person behaviour and attitudes. In New South Wales, for instance, there was a considerable enhance in fines for minor rushing offences. Throughout Australia, the variety of deadly crashes in 60–70 km/h zones has been rising, from 241 related deaths in 2020 to 315 in 2022. Rushing is more likely to play a job, but it surely’s unclear to what extent…. This could possibly be resulting from a lot of components: rushing, risk-taking behaviours and others resembling poorer infrastructure, decrease ranges of enforcement, collisions with wildlife, long-trips and driver fatigue.” • However infrastructure, enforcement, wild-life, journeys, and driver fatigue are just about constants; definitely gradual to alter. It’s bizarre. It’s nearly as if there have been some population-wide issue that was rising danger taking conduct.
“Blood transcriptomics reveal persistent SARS-CoV-2 RNA and candidate biomarkers in Lengthy COVID sufferers” (preprint) [medRxiv]. From the Summary: “With an estimated 65 million people affected by Lengthy COVID, validated therapeutic methods in addition to non-invasive biomarkers are direly wanted to information scientific administration…. We exhibit systemic SARS-CoV-2 persistence for greater than 2 years after acute COVID-19 an infection. A 2-gene biomarker, together with SARS-CoV-2 antisense RNA, appropriately classifies Lengthy COVID with 93.8% sensitivity and 91.7% specificity.” • Attention-grabbing, since NIH blew a billion bucks on Lengthy Covid and didn’t even search for a biomarker.
Science Is Popping
Oh good:
On this NIH post-mortem examine, 10 out 11 brains 🧠had SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA. This was then cultured in a BL3 lab, and the virus was proven to be replication competent. Take heed to Daniel Chertow MD clarify👇📺 pic.twitter.com/o8u62m1DNF
— Sue (@inkblue01) December 23, 2023
Origins Debate
I’m simply laying this down as a marker, as a result of an professional in sequencing I’m not (neither is Leonardi, on-point as he has been for immune dysregulation):
This can be a smoking gun and a slam dunk rolled into one.
SARS cov 2 has seemingly synthetic sequences that might permit for meeting with a single protein out of many candidates.
That particular protein is on the grant proposals
Brace for affect as that is defined to lawmakers https://t.co/ZnHXnqcQna
— AJ Leonardi, MBBS, PhD (@fitterhappierAJ) January 18, 2024
Maybe a Mind Belief member, or a sequencing professional within the readership can remark
Coverage
A thread on the Lengthy Covid listening to at Sanders’ HELP Committee:
Good morning! That is @betsyladyzhets, getting began with livetweeting at the moment’s listening to on the Senate HELP committee about #LongCovid. Observe alongside on this thread for updates all through the occasion. pic.twitter.com/p3wPZWSi0S
— The Sick Occasions (@thesicktimes) January 18, 2024
Folks apparently hold taking off their masks to talk. Viewers, nonetheless, is masked:
On the Senate listening to on lengthy covid, chaired by @BernieSanders (recovering from his personal latest covid bout).
Room is packed — overwhelmingly by individuals carrying masks — with a spillover crowd and advocates sharing handouts for https://t.co/l4JbKm9zMa. pic.twitter.com/xxMzQHDIL7
— Dan Diamond (@ddiamond) January 18, 2024
Very encouraging to see the attendance!
“Addressing Lengthy COVID: Advancing Analysis and Bettering Affected person Care” (video) [Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions]. • The total Committee listening to…
Elite Maleficence
Mandy re-appears, no masks, no clarification:
I joined @CDCGlobal‘s all workers assembly at the moment to speak about defending well being as one staff—at residence and overseas! By native partnerships, speedy response capability constructing, knowledge trade & extra, our groups around the globe are working to guard our well being. pic.twitter.com/JmBfJDbrfP
— Mandy Ok. Cohen, MD, MPH (@CDCDirector) January 17, 2024
Love the boots. The place’s the whip?
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Case Information
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, January 16:
Lambert right here #3: Slight lower in slope, because of the Northeast and the West (except it’s an information concern). Personally, I wouldn’t name a peak, based mostly solely on the anecdotes I’m scrolling by means of, which aren’t encouraging, significantly with regard to the faculties. Very unscientific, I agree! Let’s wait and see. Notice that I don’t settle for the PMC “homework” mannequin, whose most well-known exponent is Sociopath of the Day Bob Wachter, the place you regulate your conduct in line with a number of sources of (horrible, gappy, lagged) knowledge about an infection ranges (ignoring “danger of break”). Simply stick along with your protocol day in and day trip, my recommendation. Ok.I.S.S. Nevertheless, monitoring these developments, moreover having intrinsic curiosity, is pragmatically helpful for main selections, like journey, cruises (certainly not, readers), relocation, household occasions, communication with recalcitrant HCWs, and so forth.
Lambert #4: Appears to be like like I used to be too pessimistic! (After all, half the circumstances beneath the curve happen after the height….)
Regional knowledge:
Massive decline within the Northeast!
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, January 6:
Lambert right here: JN.1 now dominates. That was quick.
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge shall be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, January 13:
Lambert right here: In keeping with Biobot knowledge.
NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not all the pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, at the least for its time interval, that Covid isn’t seasonal, although CDC is attempting to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even entering into the standard of the wastewater websites that now we have as a proxy for Covid an infection general.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of January 17:
Lambert right here: Lower for the state, lower then enhance for New York Metropolis. Hmm,
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the least. January 6:
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, January 15:
-0.7%. (It could be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and obtained examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, January 13:
Lambert right here: Share and absolute numbers down.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, December 25:
Up, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, December 25:
Notice the chart has been revised to replicate that JN.1 is BA.2.86.1 (the numbers “roll over”).
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Right here is the New York Occasions, based mostly on CDC knowledge, January 6:
Stats Watch
Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of Individuals submitting for unemployment advantages fell by 16,000 to 187,000 on the week ending January 18th, the least since September 2022, and properly under market expectations of 207,000.”
Housing: “United States Housing Begins” [Trading Economics]. “Housing begins within the US declined 4.3% month-over-month to an annualized 1.46 million in December 2023, however above market forecasts of 1.426 million. It’s the first decline in 4 months, following a downwardly revised 10.8% surge to 1.525 million in November.”
Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index within the US rose 2.2 factors to -10.6 in January 2024 from -12.8 within the prior month however worse than market estimates of -7. That is the index’s 18th unfavorable studying up to now 20 months. The indexes for present new orders and present shipments each additionally rose in January however remained unfavorable.”
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Delivery: “The drop in Panama Canal site visitors resulting from a extreme drought might price as much as $700 million” [Western Investor]. “A extreme drought that started final 12 months has pressured authorities to slash ship crossings by 36% within the Panama Canal, one of many world’s most vital commerce routes. The brand new cuts introduced Wednesday by authorities in Panama are set to deal a good better financial blow than beforehand anticipated…. Some of the extreme droughts to ever hit the Central American nation has stirred chaos within the 50-mile (80-kilometer) maritime route, inflicting a site visitors jam of vessels, casting doubts on the canal’s reliability for worldwide delivery and elevating considerations about its have an effect on on world commerce. ‘It’s very important that the nation sends a message that we’re going to take this on and discover a resolution to this water downside,’ [Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte] Vásquez mentioned. The disruption of the key commerce route between Asia and the US comes at a precarious time. Assaults on industrial ships within the Crimson Sea by Yemen’s Houthi rebels have rerouted vessels away from the essential hall for client items and vitality provides.” • “This water downside.”
Manufacturing:
Folks do not keep in mind simply how randomly reckless Trump was as President in routine selections like this. https://t.co/ozXArFAEtT
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) January 17, 2024
I’d file this beneath 2024 if there have been a information hook from Democrats, however naturally there isn’t.
Tech: “Google Information Is Boosting Rubbish AI-Generated Articles” [404 Media]. “Google Information is boosting websites that rip-off different retailers by utilizing AI to quickly churn out content material, 404 Media has discovered. Google instructed 404 Media that though it tries to deal with spam on Google Information, the corporate in the end doesn’t give attention to whether or not a information article was written by an AI or a human, opening the best way for extra AI-generated content material making its approach onto Google Information. The presence of AI-generated content material on Google Information alerts two issues: first, the black field nature of Google Information, with entry into Google Information’ rankings within the first place an opaque, however apparently gameable, system. Second, is how Google will not be prepared for moderating its Information service within the age of consumer-access AI, the place basically anybody is ready to churn out a mass of content material with little to no regard for its high quality or originality. ‘I need to learn the unique tales written by journalists who truly researched them and spoke to main sources. Any information junkie would,’ Brian Penny, a ghostwriter who first flagged a few of the seemingly AI-generated articles to 404 Media, mentioned.”
Mr. Market: “If that is all of the draw back the bears can ship, then the bull market should be intact” [MarketWatch]. “The market ‘feels’ bearish, however the indicators are blended.”
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In the present day’s Concern & Greed Index: 62 Greed (earlier shut: 57 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 71 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jan 18 at 12:32:10 PM ET
Zeitgeist Watch
“A CELEBRATION OF THE DELIGHTFULLY-TERRIBLE DAD JOKE” [National Responsible Fatherhood Clearinghouse]. *.gov (!!). “What do you name a person with a rubber toe?” “Roberto.” Oh. However wait. There’s extra! “What’s pink and smells like paint?” “Crimson paint.” • Oh!
The Gallery
“After Darkish, Dave Jordano Pictures the Idiosyncratic Personalities of American Cities” [Colossal]. “‘For me, it’s principally in regards to the quiet solitude, the empty streets, generally surreal nature of a metropolis that appears and feels as if it’s frozen in time,’ Jordano tells Colossal. His images invite us on a journey by means of American cities within the late hours when they don’t seem to be usually noticed, devoid of individuals but hinting at their presence by means of an illuminated kitchen home windows or an open tavern door. He provides, ‘The tempo of every little thing slows down, and time turns into irrelevant. Underneath this synthetic mild, the buildings usually tackle a theatrical look as in the event that they’re performing for me, displaying me their greatest aspect.’” • For instance:
I regarded over the gallery, with a view towards making the declare that Jordano’s images might solely have been taken in America. The above, definitely. His total oeuvre? I’m not so certain.
Information of the Wired
“Know-how is stealing your time in methods it’s possible you’ll not realise – right here’s what you are able to do about it” [The Conversation]. “There may be rising proof that whereas digital expertise could assist us to avoid wasting time, we find yourself utilizing that point to do an increasing number of issues. We lately interviewed 300 individuals throughout Europe to grasp how they used digital gadgets in day-to-day life. This analysis confirmed that individuals need to keep away from empty intervals of time of their lives, in order that they fill these intervals performing duties, a few of which wouldn’t be attainable with out expertise. Whether or not it was ready for a bus, waking within the morning, or mendacity in mattress at night time, our members reported that point which might beforehand be “empty” was now full of mind coaching apps, creating lists of issues they need to do or strive based mostly on their social media feed, and different life admin. Plainly quiet moments of individuals watching, imagining and daydreaming are actually full of tech-based duties. The expansion in digital duties is occurring, partially, as a result of expertise seems to be altering our notion of what free time is for. For many individuals, it’s now not sufficient to easily eat dinner, watch TV or perhaps do an train class. As an alternative, in an try and keep away from losing time, these actions are carried out whereas additionally looking the online looking for the elements for a extra excellent life and attempting to develop a way of feat.” • Yves’ tax on time.
“7 Issues A Happiness Scientist Taught Me About Discovering Extra Pleasure” [Vogue]. “Happiness, in different phrases, isn’t one thing that simply occurs, and even purely circumstantial. It entails homework and consciousness. Follow. So, let’s start.” And: “pleasure is invariably present in its follow, moderately than looking for perfection. Love is repeatedly vowing to indicate up. Love is the sweetness find a approach again to your self, to somebody, to some place or someplace.” • Selecting this up once more as a result of it’s value fascinated by twice,,,,
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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are advantageous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SD:
SD writes: “Quite a lot of Norway maple, I feel.” Appears to be like kinda like my very ill-shapen Norway Maple earlier than the largest bough fell off, nearly taking my service drop (?) with it, and I needed to lower it down, to no one’s remorse. Readers? Is that this a Norway maple?
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So for those who see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
If you happen to hate PayPal, you may e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on the best way to ship a test. Thanks!
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