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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Hen Track of the Day
Southern Screamer, Reserva Pure Formosa, Formosa, Argentina. “Duetting, however more often than not one of many people calls. After 10:30 from starting of recording, each birds in flight.” Eleven minutes of the Southern Screamer. Additionally different birds and, I swear, a cow…
* * *
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
“California struggles in addition Trump” [Politico]. “The window is narrowing to attempt to knock former President Donald Trump off California’s March 5 major poll…. One huge query looming over the push to take away Trump from the poll is the query of who has the authority. Can the highest elections officers in every state act unilaterally? Democratic secretaries of state throughout the nation, together with these in pivotal swing states like Arizona and Michigan, have largely been skeptical about attempting to exert that authority. However Weber hasn’t taken a definitive stance. Her workplace has repeatedly mentioned she is reviewing the problem…. Eleven Democrats within the California Meeting, led by Assemblymember Evan Low, despatched state Lawyer Basic Rob Bonta a letter final month urging him to make use of his authority to hunt an expedited state courtroom ruling. Low mentioned lawmakers are nonetheless urging Bonta to behave as a result of Trump ‘continues to be a transparent and current hazard to free and truthful elections in america.’ Bonta hasn’t publicly responded to the lawmakers’ request. In the meantime, the clock is ticking.”
Biden Administration
“Scoop: Biden administration sending free COVID assessments to varsities” [Axios]. “The Biden administration for the primary time will enable all colleges to order free COVID-19 assessments from the federal authorities forward of the vacations, officers informed Axios first…. The Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), an company inside HHS, has a stockpile of a whole lot of thousands and thousands of COVID assessments. It’s teaming up with the Division of Training to permit college districts to order assessments on to distribute to households. HHS officers mentioned colleges may order assessments at a fee they may count on to distribute them, however they didn’t specify a restrict. “I may think about a state of affairs the place maybe a fifth grade classroom, it has a COVID-positive scholar after which they ship everybody house with a COVID check within the backpack from that fifth grade class,” O’Connell mentioned.” • Testing on this situation is after the actual fact. #CovidIsAirborne. How about sending some HEPA filters and N95s?
“Kamala Harris will attend the COP28 local weather summit in Dubai” [Boston Globe]. • Nicely, that’s too unhealthy. I had thought COP28 was essential.
“Probabilities dim for Senate vote on rail security invoice: Guide” [Freight Waves]. “Prospects for rail security laws in Congress to maneuver ahead within the waning weeks of 2023 seem dim, given different urgent nationwide points and even ‘psychological exhaustion’* amongst politicians, in response to a former U.S. Division of Transportation official who now heads a consulting agency. ;I believe the underside line is that it’s most likely unlikely at this level that we’re gonna see any laws this yr. And subsequent yr — being an election yr — can be trying fairly grim so far as prospects for the invoice,’ mentioned Loren A. Smith Jr., president of Skyline Coverage Danger Group, a analysis and consulting agency centered on the provision chain. Smith beforehand served as deputy assistant secretary for coverage at DOT.” • NOTE * Residing with Covid will do this.
2024
Lower than a yr to go!
* * *
“Closely redacted paperwork associated to look warrant for Trump’s Twitter account launched” [New York Post]. “The search warrant, issued in January towards the corporate now often known as X, was amongst a number of paperwork launched by the Justice Division Monday as a part of a lawsuit introduced by media organizations in search of daylight on the particular counsel’s investigation into Trump’s actions main as much as the Jan. 6, 2021, riot on the US Capitol.” To me, that is the attention-grabbing half. From the search warrant: “All data from the ‘Join’ or ‘Notifications’ tab for the account, together with all lists of Twitter customers who’ve favorited or retweeted tweets posted by the account, in addition to all tweets that embrace the username related to the account (i.e. ‘mentions’ or ‘replies’), the warrant states.” • Right here is the warrant. Right here is the related passage:
Be aware that the warrant limits the seizure to “October 2020 to January 2021.” However, if I retweeted a Trump tweet, I may get a go to from the Justice Division? In America? Actually?
“Trump Rallies Aren’t Even Actually About Politics at This Level” [Slate]. “For all of Donald Trump’s rhetorical improvements, character quirks, and alleged felony malfeasance, what has made him really distinctive as a political determine is how a lot he has merged fan tradition with American politics. It’s commonplace for Individuals to idolize presidents—Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama are nonetheless actively revered by many—however no different president has impressed the identical degree of merchandise strains or themed automobile flags. A MAGA bumper sticker typically isn’t merely an announcement of loyalty; it’s a cultural signifier of neighborhood very similar to the dancing bear bumper sticker is for a Grateful Useless fan. Nowhere is that this extra clear than at Trump’s rallies. He’s turned his marketing campaign occasions into one thing that has extra in frequent with a Bruce Springsteen live performance than a Harry Truman whistle-stop tour. A late-November Trump rally in Fort Dodge, Iowa, was pretty much as good an instance of the style as any. Held in a fading blue-collar metropolis about 30 miles from the interstate, attendees began lining up for the rally early within the morning for the possibility to see Trump seem in a highschool gymnasium adorned with banners celebrating victorious softball and bowling groups…. Trump has lengthy drawn a neighborhood of superfans referred to as ‘Entrance Row Joes’ who deal with his occasions with the identical regard that Deadheads used to deal with a stay present. Whereas Jim and Sandy Pamperin of St. Paul, Minnesota, weren’t fairly in that neighborhood—Sandy had been to a mere eight Trump rallies whereas Jim had solely been to 3, together with a canceled one in Iowa earlier this yr—it was nonetheless an essential occasion for them.”
“I Will Make America Nice Once more for Younger Folks” [Donald Trump, Newsweek]. “A current NBC Information ballot discovered that we’re main Biden 46 p.c to 42 p.c nationally amongst voters ages 18 to 34—a transparent signal that younger Individuals are rejecting Joe Biden’s reign of failure, incompetence, and corruption. In the course of the first Trump administration, we created the strongest and most affluent economic system within the historical past of the world. Below my management, annual incomes went up by greater than $6,000, inflation was below 2 p.c, and we had gasoline right down to $1.87 per gallon. Family web price reached an all-time excessive, with the underside 50 p.c of American households seeing a 40 p.c enhance of their web price. The U.S. economic system had by no means been higher for younger Individuals, however for the previous three years, younger folks have borne the heavy prices of the failed Biden agenda: crippling inflation, hovering costs, skyrocketing rates of interest, unaffordable housing, and escalating crime. Over the course of the Biden administration, actual incomes have gone down by $7,400 per household. Gasoline costs reached as excessive as $7 a gallon in some locations. Cumulative inflation is eighteen p.c. And mortgage charges are pushing a brutal seven p.c—making house possession out of attain for numerous younger Individuals. Once I was in workplace, the 30-year mortgage fee reached a report low of two.65 p.c—and the median-income American household may afford a mortgage. But due to Biden’s disastrous economic system, rates of interest have skyrocketed, making home-ownership out of attain for too many Individuals, particularly younger Individuals who in earlier generations can be trying to begin a household. In consequence, traditionally excessive numbers of younger individuals are delaying marriage and kids.” • Dunno who the ghostwriter is, however fairly good!
* * *
“JPMorgan’s Dimon: Democrats ought to enhance Nikki Haley” [Politico]. “JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon urged Democrats to help Nikki Haley within the GOP presidential major, arguing that she presents a robust various to former President Donald Trump. ‘When you’re a really liberal Democrat, I urge you to assist Nikki Haley, too. Give them a selection on the Republican facet that is likely to be higher than Trump,’ Dimon, who leads the nation’s largest industrial financial institution, mentioned onstage on the 2023 DealBook Summit on Wednesday. Dimon has been speaking up Haley in current weeks as the previous South Carolina governor has gained within the polls. Whereas she’s nonetheless trailing nicely behind Trump, she has received endorsements from an influential tremendous PAC backed by the Koch community and has began to fundraise with Wall Road heavyweights.” • Hey, nimrod: The State is believed to have relative autonomy from the capitalist class. Keep in your lane! (The opposite squillionaires, too, if it involves that.)
“Influential GOP donors are betting their thousands and thousands on Haley in a brand new push to beat Trump” [CNN]. “The forty fifth president’s enemies on the fitting are mustering for a closing huge cash showdown designed to crush his hopes of a 3rd consecutive Republican nomination lower than 50 days earlier than voting begins within the GOP major race. Nikki Haley would be the lavishly funded vessel carrying the hopes of the influential community funded by billionaire Charles Koch and high industrial and company donors who assume Donald Trump is a threat too far subsequent November.” • Not an empty vessel, one hopes….
* * *
“How Arab American voters’ backlash may imperil Biden’s 2024 marketing campaign” [Axios]. “Arab American and Muslim American anger over President Biden’s dealing with of the Israel-Hamas warfare could possibly be endangering his re-election within the majority of 2024 swing states. Michigan, Virginia, Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania all have notable pockets of those populations. There aren’t dependable statistics on what number of are registered voters — however even tiny shifts of help in any of those super-tight states that Biden received in 2020 may make a distinction…. An Axios evaluation of 2020 leads to these essential states reveals that if even a sliver of the Arab American and Muslim American vote have been to remain house or defect to Republicans, Biden could possibly be in a deep gap.” • Nicely price a learn (and maybe the reason for Biden’s current vibe shift).
“Hunter Biden is lastly going to face laborious questions from those that received’t ‘ask properly’” [New York Post]. “‘The Bidens are the very best at doing precisely what the Chairman needs.’ These phrases from Hunter Biden to a Chinese language businessman got here on the top of the alleged affect peddling by the Biden household. After years of delay and denials, the Home is about to substantiate precisely what the Bidens have been so good at doing … and what overseas figures needed a lot that they have been prepared to pay the Bidens thousands and thousands. Hunter Biden is scheduled to look earlier than the Home Oversight Committee on Dec. 13 to reply questions on what’s alleged to be the biggest influence-peddling operation in historical past. Regardless of being subpoenaed, Hunter continues to be demanding circumstances for answering questions. His lawyer Abbe Lowell beforehand mentioned Hunter would testify solely when ‘the time is true’ and is now saying that Hunter would testify in public, not the scheduled non-public session. Republicans rejected that demand.” • As certainly they need to!
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I must do this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, the truth is, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Get together is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Get together fails to control, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the potential to control. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Get together reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Get together (ka-ching, however not totally) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Be aware, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
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Realignment and Legitimacy
“On the earth of sexual fetishes, crossing the political aisle is a kink” [WaPo]. “The Democrat, who works within the auto-insurance business, spoke on the situation of anonymity as a result of he fears his household discovering out about his fetish. He mentioned he found political fetishes on a BDSM social media web site a few years in the past. ‘A whole lot of [the content] was liberals submitting to conservative Republicans or MAGA or being ‘red-pilled’ into supporting and worshiping Trump,’ he mentioned. He obtained turned on, and it stunned him as a result of ‘earlier than the Trump period began, I by no means as soon as thought of politics as being sexualized,’ he mentioned. ‘Domination from a political celebration and a[n] ideology that I can’t tolerate, made it … far more of a turn-on.;…. Though he has numerous fetishes, that is the one which he considers probably the most excessive…. It’s not simply Democrats fantasizing about being dominated by Republicans. It typically works the opposite means as nicely. A 60-year-old man, recognized by his fetish persona Grasp Black Satyr Dragon Wolf, unexpectedly turned a political fetish dominant when a 22-year-old straight-identifying school scholar responded to his Craigslist advert in search of a BDSM accomplice. ‘I need to be punished by an individual of colour as a result of I voted for Donald Trump,’ the coed wrote.” And: “Not like within the non-fetish world, the place most Biden and Trump supporters have few pals who vote for the opposing candidate, within the fetish world, political opposites mingle. And if you’re into political fetishes it’s possible you’ll turn into, mockingly, extra open-minded to the opposing facet’s views, in response to RightMakesMites. ‘When you’re going to successfully dominate them, you need to know form of why they hate you. So for those who’re sitting there, pondering, ‘Oh, Trump has the solutions on the whole lot. How may anybody presumably assume in any other case?’ Nicely, you’re not gonna be an excellent dom of a liberal,’ he mentioned.” • Wowsers. I dunno (and I’m recalling that liberal Democrats really dreamed about Trump…).
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
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Covid is Airborne
“Examine: Air air purifier use at daycare centres lower children’ sick days by a 3rd” [YLE]. “Use of air purifiers at two daycare centres in Helsinki led to a discount in sicknesses and absences amongst youngsters and workers, in response to preliminary findings of a brand new examine led by E3 Pandemic Response. Air purifiers of varied sizes and kinds have been positioned in two of town’s daycare centres throughout chilly and flu seasons. The preliminary outcomes from the primary yr of analysis are promising, in response to researcher Enni Sanmark, from HUS Helsinki College Hospital. ‘Youngsters have been clearly much less sick in daycare centres the place air purification gadgets have been used — down by round 30 p.c,’ Sanmark defined. The air purifiers have been modified at two daycare centres serving as a management within the experiment, in an effort to rule out the impact that doable epidemic fluctuations may have on the outcomes. The examine’s subsequent section will proceed till April. ‘We can analyse whether or not there have been solely decreases in flu-type sicknesses or whether or not the usage of air purification may additionally assist scale back abdomen illnesses,’ Sanmark mentioned. On common, daycare centre-aged youngsters undergo 10-13 infectious sicknesses yearly, with every sickness lasting from one to 3 weeks, in response to the analysis.”
Maskstravaganza
Variety phrases:
I distrust any type of glorification… however on the entire and on the typical, I believe Browne’s obtained it proper. Cf. Matt 10:22.
Immnune Dysregulation
“Affiliation of COVID-19 with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in youngsters aged 0–5 years within the USA in 2022: a multicentre retrospective cohort examine” [BMJ]. ” COVID-19 was related to a considerably elevated threat for RSV infections amongst youngsters aged 0–5 years in 2022. Comparable findings have been replicated for a examine inhabitants of kids aged 0–5 years in 2021. Our findings counsel that COVID-19 contributed to the 2022 surge of RSV instances in younger youngsters by way of the big buildup of COVID-19-infected youngsters and the potential long-term hostile results of COVID-19 on the immune and respiratory system.” • Good factor we compelled all our youngsters again into poorly ventilated colleges, then….
“COVID-19 and Immune Dysregulation, a Abstract and Useful resource” [World Health Network]. From March, nonetheless germane. “The immune system is amazingly advanced consisting of T cells, B cells, antibodies, dendritic cells, platelets, and a number of other extra cell sorts. Every kind of cell can have quite a few subtypes….. Within the references hooked up we see that COVID-19 can have an effect on and harm, at the least quickly, all of the features and all of the cell sorts of the immune system. It seems to age elements of the immune system, which is likely to be everlasting. We merely have no idea but. The consequences of COVID-19 are seen in T cells, B cells, dendritic cells, monocytes, and platelets, amongst different techniques.”
“Trying to find an evidence about why N.M. pediatric hospitals are overflowing” [Source NM]. ‘Tis a thriller! And the deck: “Nobody has dominated out that COVID leaves folks extra vulnerable to extreme an infection.” I ought to actually file this below propaganda: “Quite a few medical specialists [lol] have mentioned over the previous couple weeks that a part of the reason being that the general public well being measures New Mexico took in response to COVID made it so youngsters didn’t get uncovered to respiratory viruses as they usually would have. However in interviews with Supply New Mexico, an immunologist and an evolutionary biologist discover that clarification to be incomplete, and an evidence may embrace the truth that COVID assaults the immune system, and like different respiratory viruses, makes an individual’s airways extra vulnerable to an infection.” • Fascinating to see the assault on public well being so open.
Variants
The “Pirola” clan:
We have been attempting to emphasise that what issues now just isn’t particular person variants that may trigger “the following huge wave”, however *evolving lineages*. Particularly, we famous that, as divergent as it’s, inventory BA.2.86 (Pirola) would doubtless not take off, however its *descendants* may.
— T. Ryan Gregory (@TRyanGregory) November 28, 2023
An infection
“Spare me. In case you have a runny nostril, keep house” [Sydney Morning Herald]. “The Uber driver coughed. A moist, sickly sound that performed on repeat each minute or so, sometimes punctuated by a loud sneeze. He was unmasked, and he’d requested me to close the rear window in order that mud didn’t get into the automobile. Frankly, I used to be extra involved with what was already inside it. Each cough made me flinch, and with each sneeze I reflexively touched the straps of my masks, to reassure myself that I used to be – as a lot as doable – protected.” • One would assume that Uber may devise a company coverage to forestall this kind of factor. (Additionally, nonetheless, asymptomatic transmission is harmful, so maybe all Uber drivers ought to check….)
Sequelae
“New CDC life expectancy knowledge reveals painfully gradual rebound from covid” [WaPo]. “The brand new numbers are clearly optimistic — in contrast with 2021. However the identical knowledge present the dramatic, and protracted, impression of the pandemic. Between 2019 and 2021, life expectancy dropped 2.4 years, and the 2022 leap restored only one.1. years of that deficit. (Males misplaced 2.8 years in these first two years, and girls 2.1 years.)” And: “Life expectancy rose in a comparatively regular trend for the entire twentieth century and the primary decade of the twenty first. However beginning in 2010, the nation entered a decade of stagnation on this key metric.” • Thanks, Obama!
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, almost certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind harm, together with character modifications therefrom.
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Elite Maleficence
Emily Oster was the winner of our very first “Sociopath of the Day” Award, in October 31, 2022. Now she’s within the information once more:
Holy moly, economist Emily Oster has her personal trend line…
I like this a lot, and now have to determine which look @BetseyStevenson is getting for Christmas.
Congratulations, @ProfEmilyOster!https://t.co/pCeZodcYNw pic.twitter.com/BNxAAH6cGt
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) November 28, 2023
* * *
• “#CovidIsntOver Traits As Covid-19 Hospitalizations Rise By 8.6%” [Forbes]. “[W]ithout any actual nationwide system in place for monitoring new Covid-19 instances, the U.S. is kind of flying blind in relation to SARS-CoV-2 exercise. Since emergency room visits and hospitalizations have a tendency to return at the least every week or two after folks have been contaminated, rises in such numbers imply that rises in SARS-CoV-2 exercise most likely occurred two or perhaps even three or 4 weeks prior. And it’s a complete lot more durable to forestall an upswing that has already been occurring after the actual fact, assuming that you just don’t have a DeLorean automobile that serves as a time machine. Basing Covid-19 prevention insurance policies on hospitalizations and deaths alone can be kind of like displaying folks a burnt down home and saying, ‘Do you assume that we have to set up some hearth extinguishers on this home?’” • Certainly.
Case Knowledge
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, November 27:
Lambert right here: Case counts shifting neatly upward (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was attempting to hide after they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).
Regional knowledge:
That Midwest near-vertical curve is regarding, though as ever with Biobot you need to look ahead to backward revisions.
• Lambert right here: I’ve checked out Verily’s slick new dashboard, and have some ideas. However not immediately!
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, November25:
Lambert right here: Prime of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a robust second, however BA.2.86 developing quick on the surface.
From CDC, November 11:
Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services lower by directors of ailing intent).
CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge can be reported biweekly, primarily based on the provision of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 25:
Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater knowledge. Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).
NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the least for its time interval, that Covid just isn’t seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is attempting to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of November 29:
Up. Degree-ish, however I guess hospitalization drops over the vacation weekend. Let’s wait and see. New York state as a complete seems extra like a spike. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the least. November 18:
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, November 27:
0.4%. Up. (It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and obtained examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, November 25:
Lambert right here: Improve (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, November 6:
Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers, November 6:
BA.2.86 coming alongside properly.
Deaths
Whole: 1,183,455 – 1,183,396 = 15 (15 * 365 = 5475 deaths per yr, immediately’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could must resolve that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of loss of life and illness).
Lambert right here: This quantity is just too small it doesn’t matter what. Iowa Covid19 Tracker hasn’t been up to date since September 27, 2023. I’ll must revert to CDC knowledge. Yech.
Extra Deaths
NOT UPDATED The Economist, November 18:
Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.
Stats Watch
Company Earnings: “United States Company Earnings” [Trading Economics]. “Company income in america surged by 4.1% from the earlier quarter to $2.709 trillion within the third quarter of 2023, probably the most in a single yr, and lengthening the 0.5% enhance from the earlier quarter…. Nonetheless, in comparison with the corresponding interval of the earlier yr, company income edged decrease by 1.7%.”
Wholesale Stock: “United States Wholesale Inventories” [Trading Economics]. “Wholesale inventories in america fell by 0.2% month-over-month in October 2023, following a downwardly revised 0.1% rise within the prior month and worse than market estimates of a 0.1% enhance, preliminary estimates confirmed.”
Retail Stock: “United States Retail Inventories Ex Autos” [Trading Economics]. “Retail Inventories Ex Autos in america decreased by 0.9% over a month in October 2023, following a revised 0.4% fall within the prior month, preliminary estimates confirmed.”
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* * *
Right now’s Worry & Greed Index: 66 Greed (earlier shut: 65 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 66 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 29 at 12:11:04 PM ET.
Healthcare
“Causal proof that herpes zoster vaccination prevents a proportion of dementia instances” (preprint) [medRxiv]. A intelligent pure experiment. “To supply causal versus merely correlational proof on this query, we benefit from the truth that in Wales eligibility for the herpes zoster vaccine (Zostavax) for shingles prevention was decided primarily based on a person’s actual date of delivery. These born earlier than September 2 1933 have been ineligible and remained ineligible for all times, whereas these born on or after September 2 1933 have been eligible to obtain the vaccine. By utilizing country-wide knowledge on all vaccinations acquired, major and secondary care encounters, loss of life certificates, and sufferers’ date of delivery in weeks, we first present that the share of adults who acquired the vaccine elevated from 0.01% amongst sufferers who have been merely one week too outdated to be eligible, to 47.2% amongst those that have been only one week youthful. Other than this massive distinction within the chance of ever receiving the herpes zoster vaccine, there isn’t a believable motive why these born only one week previous to September 2 1933 ought to differ systematically from these born one week later…. We then present that receiving the herpes zoster vaccine lowered the chance of a brand new dementia prognosis over a follow-up interval of seven years by 3.5 proportion factors (95% CI: 0.6 – 7.1, p=0.019), similar to a 19.9% relative discount within the incidence of dementia.”
The Gallery
Shot:
Francisco de Goya – The Third of Could pic.twitter.com/Z7PbPm0vWZ
— Artwork Gallery (@Best_ArtGallery) November 29, 2023
Chaser:
#Taking pictures Ejecución del Emperador Maximiliano de México (The Execution of Emperor Maximilian) by Manet, 1867 pic.twitter.com/oKLMIo7jhU
— Ninotchka (@Ninotchkaia) Could 9, 2014
One other chaser:
Extra horrors of warfare: Bloodbath in Korea, 1951, as envisioned by Pablo Picasso, #BTD 1881. What Previous(ish) Grasp portray impressed this one? pic.twitter.com/i5h1u2SlXN
— Dr. Peter Paul Rubens (@PP_Rubens) October 25, 2019
Class Warfare
“Individuals want an additional $11,400 immediately simply to afford the fundamentals” [CBS]. “The standard American family should spend a further $11,434 yearly simply to keep up the identical lifestyle they loved in January of 2021, proper earlier than inflation soared to 40-year highs, in response to a current evaluation of presidency knowledge…. Though inflation is cooling, many customers might not be feeling a lot aid as a result of most costs aren’t declining (One main exception: fuel costs, that are notoriously risky and which have declined about 5% up to now yr.) Shoppers are nonetheless paying extra, albeit at a slower tempo, on high of the upper costs that have been locked in when worth hikes surged in 2022 and earlier this yr.” • Costs don’t “surge” (be aware lack of company). Costs rise as a result of corporations increase them.
Information of the Wired
“The camel, the rope, and the needle’s eye” [Kiwi Hellenist]. Exegesis of Mark 10:25: “It’s simpler for a camel to undergo the attention of a needle than for somebody who’s wealthy to enter the dominion of God.” So: “In accordance with the parable, ‘camel’ is a misreading: initially, it was a ‘rope’ going by way of a needle. Nonetheless inconceivable, however not surreal like ‘camel’. Supposedly, the textual content initially had kamilos, however kamēlos ‘camel’ and kamilos ‘rope’ sounded the identical in imperial-era Greek, in order that they obtained combined up…. The chief abstract is that this: the phrase supposedly that means ‘rope’ was made up within the fifth century or shortly beforehand, and it was made up particularly to weaken Jesus’ condemnation of wealth.” • Vindication of Jesus as surrealist class warrior!
“My $500M Mars Rover Mistake: A Failure Story” [Chris LeWicki]. That is nice. “The heart beat was despatched to the motor. As at all times, the outcome was fast, however this time, alarmingly unfamiliar. The strip chart didn’t seem like something we had seen earlier than. It didn’t even seem like a damaged motor. It was decidedly — one thing else. My thoughts raced for explanations and in what appeared like an prompt, arrived on the almost certainly clarification. My eyes adopted the wires from our breakout field on the check cart to the spacecraft, and the explanation for the unfamiliar sign landed like a dagger by way of my coronary heart. All that energy we simply launched didn’t go into the RAT-Revolve motor. Resulting from a mistake I had made with the break-out-box, it went the opposite course on the connector interface, sending a surge of electrical energy straight into the spacecraft, as an alternative of the motor. Ooooohhhh ssshhhhiiiiitttt.” • However there’s a contented ending!
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Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are nice! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From MG:
MG writes: “Went again to California for my sins for the one centesimal yr anniversary of my highschool, and noticed this tree within the automobile park of the resort (once more, I have to abjectly apologize for my poor digicam work).” It’s true that the topic doesn’t have to be within the middle. However, maybe this topic does!
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So for those who see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get apprehensive. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets:
Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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