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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Affected person readers, it is a bit gentle at current, as a result of I bought wrapped around the axle studying Trump’s enchantment on immunity. –lambert
Chook Track of the Day
Pacific Loon, Churchill and Northern Manitoba, Manitoba, CanadaMedia from this location Illustrated Guidelines. “Intervals shortened a bit to take away worst insect noise.” That wierd, unmusical croaking is the loon!
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Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Capitol Seizure
“Supreme Courtroom will hear a case that might undo Capitol riot cost in opposition to a whole lot, together with Trump” [Orlando Sentinel]. ” The Supreme Courtroom on Wednesday stated it’s going to hear an enchantment that might upend a whole lot of fees stemming from the Capitol riot, together with in opposition to former President Donald Trump. The justices will overview an appellate ruling that revived a cost in opposition to three defendants accused of obstruction of an official continuing. The cost refers back to the disruption of Congress’ certification of Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential election victory over Trump. That’s amongst 4 counts introduced in opposition to Trump in particular counsel Jack Smith’s case that accuses the 2024 Republican presidential major front-runner of conspiring to overturn the outcomes of his election loss. Trump can be charged with conspiracy to hinder an official continuing. The court docket’s choice to weigh in on the obstruction cost may threaten the beginning of Trump’s trial, at present scheduled for March 4. The justices individually are contemplating whether or not to rule rapidly on Trump’s declare that he can’t be prosecuted for actions taken inside his function as president. A federal choose already has rejected that argument.” • Gonna look forward to the attorneys to weigh on on this one. That stated, if Januaruy 6 was an riot, why wasn’t that the cost?
Biden Administration
“White Home open to new border expulsion regulation, necessary detention and elevated deportations in talks with Congress” [CBS]. “Particularly, the White Home indicated that it might assist a brand new, far-reaching authorized authority to permit U.S. border officers to summarily expel migrants with out processing their asylum claims. The measure would successfully revive the Trump-era Title 42 pandemic order and permit officers to pause U.S. asylum regulation, with no public well being justification.” • Biden is a liberal Democrat, allow us to keep in mind. However something for Israel.
“Remarks by President Biden at a Marketing campaign Reception” [Whitehouse.gov]. Value studying in full. This:
Bibi and I discuss so much. I’ve recognized him for 50 years. A few of you realize he has an image on his desk — at the very least after I’m there, he has it on it. (Laughter.) Eight and a half by eleven, with an image of — the place I wrote, “Bibi…” — after we have been each younger males, he was on the embassy right here and I used to be a senator. I stated, “Bibi, I like you, however I don’t agree with a rattling factor it’s a must to say.” (Laughter.) That is still to be the case. (Laughter.)
He’s an excellent pal, however I feel he has to vary and — with this authorities. This authorities in Israel is making it very troublesome for him to maneuver.
You understand, Ben-Gvir shouldn’t be what you’ll name somebody who — that is essentially the most conservative authorities in Israel’s historical past — essentially the most conservative. I’ve recognized each, each, each single head of state in Israel since Golda Meir. And I’ve recognized them as a result of I’ve frolicked with them many occasions.
However:
So, these of you who’ve household again in Israel, you noticed what occurred when Bibi tried to vary the Supreme Courtroom. 1000’s of IDF troopers stated, “We’re out. We’re not going to take part. We’re not going to assist the navy.”
That wasn’t any outdoors affect. That got here from inside Israel.
So, people, there’s so much to do — a complete lot to do.
Initially, do every part in our energy to carry Hamas accountable — each single factor in our energy. They’re animals. They’re animals. They exceeded something that every other terrorist group has executed of late that I — in reminiscence.
However, secondly, we’ve got to work towards bringing Israel collectively in a manner that gives for the start of possibility — an possibility of a two-state resolution, as a result of absent that — (applause) — (inaudible).
It’s in all probability greater than you needed to listen to, however — (laughter).
That Biden focuses on home politics each right here and in Israel is fascinating. However to me, this boils down to 1 phrase: Intractable.
2024
Lower than a 12 months to go!
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“Trump immunity in E. Jean Carroll case denied by appeals panel, establishing Supreme Courtroom battle” [The Hill]. “A 3-judge panel of the U.S. Courtroom of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit dominated in opposition to Trump, discovering that presidential immunity could possibly be waived as a protection and that Trump had the truth is waived it.” Whoops. Extra: “The panel went on to reject the previous president’s varied arguments for why he ought to be capable of assert the protection now. ‘[R]ecognizing presidential immunity as waivable reinforces, not undermines, the separation of powers and the President’s choice making authority by affording the President a possibility to litigate if he so chooses. Accordingly, we maintain that presidential immunity is waivable,’ Decide José Cabranes wrote within the 35-page choice.” • The 2nd circuit ruling on immunity has a domino impact on Smith’s case, and so–
“Trump’s attorneys inform an appeals court docket that federal prosecutors try to hurry his election case” [ABC]. “Attorneys for Donald Trump instructed a federal appeals court docket on Wednesday that it mustn’t velocity up its consideration of whether or not the previous president is immune from prosecution, accusing federal prosecutors of attempting to hurry his 2020 election subversion case by earlier than subsequent 12 months’s presidential election…. The problem is of paramount significance to each side given the potential for a protracted enchantment to delay a trial past its at present scheduled begin date of March 4…. At concern is an enchantment by the Trump group, filed final week, of a trial choose’s rejection of arguments that he was shielded from prosecution for actions he took as president. Smith sought to short-circuit that course of by asking the Supreme Courtroom on Monday to take up the problem throughout its present time period, a request he acknowledged was ‘extraordinary’ however one he stated he was important to maintain the case transferring ahead. Smith’s group concurrently requested the U.S. Courtroom of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit to expedite its consideration of Trump’s enchantment, writing: ‘The general public has a robust curiosity on this case continuing to trial in a well timed method. The trial can’t proceed, nonetheless, earlier than decision of the defendant’s interlocutory enchantment.’ The Trump group made clear its opposition to that request, saying the case presents ‘novel, advanced, and delicate questions of profound significance.’” • The textual content of Trump’s enchantment–
“PRESIDENT TRUMP’S OPPOSITION TO MOTION FOR EXPEDITED APPELLATE REVIEW” [IN THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT]. From the Introduction:
IANAL, and I don’t love Trump, however this doesn’t appear improper to me: “Whether or not a President of the USA could also be criminally prosecuted for his official acts as President goes to the core of our system of separated powers and can stand among the many most consequential questions ever determined by this Courtroom.” Anyhow, this paragraph should convey down the temple:
Sure, Bush, Obama, and Nixon have been all crooks. Impeachment would have been the reply for all three, provided that in our system of celebration governance, the prosecutoral equipment is “captured,” by definition (absent “norms”). Political events are, after all, a part of our unwritten Structure. No textual warrant for them in any respect.
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“Axelrod says WSJ ballot ‘very, very darkish’ for Biden marketing campaign” [The Hill]. “Axelrod stated he was most alarmed by the numbers relating to voters’ notion of Biden’s and Trump’s insurance policies when president. About 23 % of voters stated Biden’s insurance policies have helped them, whereas 49 % stated the identical of Trump’s insurance policies. About 53 % stated Biden’s insurance policies harm them personally, and 37 % stated the identical for Trump.” • Provided that the Democrats undid the CARES Act as quickly as they may, that’s not unreasonable. However Axelrove, I assume, is working interference for The Wizard of Kalorama™. Which horse is Obama backing, as he retains attempting to journey Biden up?
“Biden-Harris Marketing campaign Hires Brian Fallon, Outstanding Dem Critic” [RealClearPolitics]. “Brian Fallon, government director of the progressive group Demand Justice, will quickly be a part of the Biden-Harris marketing campaign as communications director for the vp…. It was Fallon and Demand Justice who known as on Biden to develop the variety of seats on the Supreme Courtroom to counter the conservative majority. And later, they mounted a stress marketing campaign to persuade liberal Justice Stephen Breyer to retire in order that the president may identify a youthful, extra progressive alternative. The White Home explicitly disapproved of each measures…. Fallon additionally publicly supported defunding the police, one thing that the White Home insists they adamantly oppose.” • If Harris thinks she will “pivot left,” she’s out of her thoughts.
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“Hunter Biden won’t sit for deposition by GOP, says father not ‘financially’ concerned in his enterprise” [FOX]. “Hunter Biden provide to testify publicly is a de facto rejection of the GOP demand that he seem Wednesday for the closed-door deposition he was subpoenaed for. That deposition was scheduled to happen Wednesday at 9:30 a.m…. ‘No proof to assist that my father was financially concerned in my enterprise as a result of it didn’t occur,’ Hunter Biden stated.” • “Financially” is doing a whole lot of work, there.
“By Trendy Requirements, Biden Ought to Be Impeached | Opinion” [Mark R. Weaver, Newsweek]. Ohio AG (R). “Based mostly on trendy legislative interpretations of impeachable conduct, the U.S. Home of Representatives has sufficient proof to question President Joe Biden. ‘Present me the treason, excessive crime, or misdemeanor’ some will shout. Right here’s my reply: Go get elected to the Home, the place you and your colleagues alone resolve what proof meets that normal…. Richard Nixon was by no means charged with against the law or impeached however he was recognized as an unindicted co-conspirator within the crimes of others. Regardless of his provable lies on the contrary, Joe Biden was concerned along with his son Hunter’s international affect enterprise. Whether or not that makes him a co-conspirator in Hunter’s crimes is a ripe space for congressional scrutiny. Essentially the most energetic architect of the Structure, James Madison, described the kind of behaviors that might set off impeachment as ‘incapacity, negligence or perfidy.’ Impeachment served as a safeguard, Madison stated, in opposition to betrayal of ‘his belief to international powers.’ Ukraine and China leap to thoughts. With these info in hand, sustaining the partisan declare of “no proof” is like denying the daylight at daybreak. Sure, issues have been solely dimly seen for some time, however the sunlit scrutiny of hearings will nearly actually forged an plain beam on this conclusion: It’s time to question Joe Biden.”
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IL: “Illinois NAACP president faces calls to give up over convention name the place she branded migrants ‘rapist savages’ who’re taking assets from black and homeless individuals” [Daily Mail]. “‘These immigrants who come over right here, they’ve been raping individuals, they’ve been breaking into houses, they’re like savages as properly,’ [Teresa Haley] stated. ‘They don’t communicate the language they usually take a look at us like we’re loopy.’… Illinois Governor JB Pritzker known as remarks ‘reprehensible’ and ‘terribly inappropriate.’ ‘I might hope that she would apologize for the remarks,’ he added. ‘I additionally assume that folks ought to acknowledge that immigrants on this nation are throughout us. Just about all of us got here right here from some other place. So remarks like which are commentary on our whole society.’”
Republican Funhouse
“Calls develop for Congress to subpoena Jeffrey Epstein’s flight logs regardless of Democrat ‘stonewalling’” [FOX]. “Calls are rising for Congress to subpoena convicted intercourse offender Jeffrey Epstein’s flight logs in an effort to determine potential perpetrators who could have partaken in his intercourse trafficking ring. In a Monday letter to the Home Oversight Committee, Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., stated there have been nonetheless many unanswered questions surrounding Epstein’s operation, together with the identities of “America’s strongest and well-known individuals” who could have been concerned.” • I’m all for it, however I can’t work out what Burchett’s letter is in assist of.
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, plainly persons are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I should do this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, the truth is, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Social gathering is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Social gathering fails to control, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the aptitude to control. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.
Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
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Realignment and Legitimacy
“Claudine Homosexual Is Why I By no means Checked the ‘Black’ Field” [The Free Press]. “[I]t was not till I utilized to varsity within the early Nineties that I encountered individuals like Claudine Homosexual and actually noticed behind the scenes of id politics. That was when, with grades and SATs that have been borderline acceptable for top-tier faculties, my highschool counselor—together with most college officers—urged me to spice up my possibilities of admission by checking the ‘black’ field on purposes. And after they noticed my reluctance, they routinely dismissed my misgivings with the identical line: ‘Oh, it’s nothing, simply verify the field and also you’ll get the higher hand.’ They weren’t improper: I used to be as soon as supplied a $25,000 Martin Luther King scholarship, some huge cash in 1993. Checking the black field was tempting, to say the least. Nevertheless it was a sham. At the moment, the share of all blacks on school campuses who have been from decrease financial backgrounds had fallen to the one digits. These college students had been changed by middle- to upper-class blacks, Africans, Caribbeans, and multiracials like me. By checking the black field, I used to be being requested to masks the precise issues and inequities that undermine the efforts of lower-class blacks—all so college administrations may declare the pretense of racial redemption by increased enrollment numbers.” • It wouldn’t be that arduous for universities to make revenue, a proxy for sophistication, the motive force for DEI….
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
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Maskstravaganza
“Ear loop respirators/masks don’t present safety as tight becoming RPE” [Health and Safety Executive]. UK. “New HSE analysis has revealed that respirators/masks which depend on ear loops (together with these supplied with clips, ‘snuggers’ or different technique of tightening the match of the masks) to carry the respirator/masks in place, don’t shield individuals adequately when used as tight becoming respiratory protecting tools (RPE)…. Following publication of the earlier Security Alert ‘Use of Face Masks designated KN95‘, in June 2020, the NHS took early motion to exclude ear loop respirators/masks from their provide chain as a result of considerations over their safety. Consequently, respirators with a head harness can have been equipped and match check accomplished with this fashion of respirator.” • I feel readers know this, however simply in case…
Testing and Monitoring
An unsettling risk re: wastewater:
The components could have modified.
The info could also be skewed.
Presumably closely skewed.
TBD.
— Barry Hunt – #DavosSafe (@BarryHunt008) December 13, 2023
Again within the day, earlier than the general public well being institution crippled accumulating precise case information, we may crosscheck wastewater information in opposition to it (and vice versa). Now not.
I can consider loads of people at Stanford who’re filled with it, so:
Seems to me like you might have a cryptic WW-variant shedder in your arms. We have seen single people shed extra virus than whole sewersheds on the peak of their worst Covid wave. Be sure to protect some samples for @SolidEvidence to take a look at. https://t.co/5PFzom5wap
— Ryan Hisner (@LongDesertTrain) December 11, 2023
Transmission
“Janesville College District holding digital lessons Wednesday & Thursday as a result of college students and employees out sick” [KWWL]. “The Janesville College District might be transferring lessons nearly on Wednesday and Thursday as a result of 127 college students and 13 employees members at present out sick…. “Our employees might be cleansing and disinfecting the district over the subsequent few days.” • [bangs head on desk].
An infection
“COVID examine: 40% of youngsters nonetheless infectious after symptom decision” [Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy]. “A examine right now of viral shedding dynamics in 101 youngsters who had COVID-19 in the course of the Omicron surge in Toronto reveals that 40% have been nonetheless infectious on the day after their signs resolved… The median time to symptom decision was 6 days, and 12% of members nonetheless had signs at day 10. Total, the median time to non-infectious virus load was 5 days after symptom onset, with 75% of members assembly the non-infectious threshold by 7 days, and 90% by 10 days. …. ‘These findings assist the consideration for an infection prevention and management interventions for as much as 10 days publish symptom onset to scale back residual transmission danger round susceptible or immunocompromised populations,’ the authors stated.” • Delta Airways stated 5 days, so 5 days it’s. And I’m so outdated I can keep in mind when youngsters didn’t get Covid in any respect!
Science Is Popping
Lovely movies:
2) … as a result of the simplification rapidly reaches its limits.Failing to have the ability to handle merely, the main modifications within the ACE2-TMPRSS2 since Omicron, I’ve determined to come back again FIRST, with two fantastic movies on the operate of ACE2 and TMPRSS, pic.twitter.com/g9lfD4cGI0
— Emmanuel (@ejustin46) December 11, 2023
Lovely and terrifying.
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A number of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind injury, together with persona modifications therefrom.
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“Neurologic Results of SARS-CoV-2 Transmitted amongst Canines” [Emerging Infectious Diseases]. From the Summary: ” On this examine, we used a canine transmission mannequin to look at histopathologic modifications within the brains of canine contaminated with SARS-CoV-2. We noticed substantial mind pathology in SARS-CoV-2–contaminated canine, significantly involving blood–mind barrier injury resembling small vessel illness, together with modifications in tight junction proteins, lowered laminin ranges, and decreased pericyte protection. Moreover, we detected phosphorylated tau, a marker of neurodegenerative illness, indicating a possible hyperlink between SARS-CoV-2–related small vessel illness and neurodegeneration. Our findings of degenerative modifications within the canine mind throughout SARS-CoV-2 an infection emphasize the potential for transmission to different hosts and induction of comparable indicators and signs. The dynamic mind modifications in canine spotlight that even asymptomatic people contaminated with SARS-CoV-2 could develop neuropathologic modifications within the mind.” • Ulp.
“That is greater than COVID: Why are so many People dying early?” [Pierre Kory and Mary Beth Pfeiffer, The Hill]. “[T]he most urgent query for insurers, epidemiologists and well being company officers. Why is the historically healthiest sector of our society — younger, employed, insured employees — dying at such charges? Public well being officers aggressively oversaw the pandemic response, for higher or worse. Why aren’t they trying into this?” • The query begging is buried in “oversaw the pandemic response.” Why will we assume that’s the one factor we should always look into, and never the sequelae of Covid itself?
Elite Maleficence
Christmas cheer (1):
The one factor we would like you to unfold this vacation season is love and cheer. Stop the unfold of #flu, #COVID, and #RSV by getting vaccinated.
Go to https://t.co/2akIUZ14Rd to discover a vaccine close to you. pic.twitter.com/GUllDqrZ7x
— CDC (@CDCgov) December 10, 2023
An outright lie from CDC; Covid vaccines don’t stop transmission (they don’t seem to be sterlizing, at the very least the present ones). CDC is so determined to cram the flu, RSV, and Covid into the seasonal respiratory virus field — I assume due to bureaucratic imperatives from an infection management departments, and maybe pharma as properly — that they’ll actually say something, even when, within the case of Covid, their recommendation prices lives.
Christmas cheer (2):
NYS DoH simply despatched a reminder that healthcare employees are required to put on a masks in the event that they have not gotten their flu shot.
It makes zero sense they’re ignoring COVID and never requiring masks for everybody. COVID ranges are excessive, and you may nonetheless unfold it if you’re vaccinated. pic.twitter.com/r5DQz7Vwjd
— Dr. Fortunate Tran (@luckytran) December 12, 2023
A second case of the identical brainworm. Vaccines don’t stop transmission, so masking must be common.
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Case Information
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, December 11:
Lambert right here: Finally Biden’s overwhelmed each one in every of Trump’s earlier spikes, so a spherical of applause for The Huge Man. The slight plateauing within the nationwide numbers doesn’t make sense to me as a result of I can’t see an natural purpose for it (until the unfold from Thanksgiving is someway being damped out, which appears implausible). I’m guessing backward revision will make the plateau go away. Solely 14 superspreading days till Christmas!
Regional information:
Arduous to see why the regional break up (and it positive could be good to have extra granular information). Climate forcing Northerners indoors? Appears facile. There’s snow within the Rockies (inexperienced shade, West), for instance.
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, December 9:
Lambert right here: JN.1, proven on the NowCast for the primary time, developing quick on the skin, whereas BA.2.86 fades.
From CDC, November25:
Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services reduce by directors of unwell intent).
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information might be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, December 2:
Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater information. Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator.
NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid shouldn’t be seasonal, though CDC is attempting to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even moving into the standard of the wastewater websites that we’ve got as a proxy for Covid an infection general.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of December 13:
Steadily up. New York state as a complete seems to be extra like a spike. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the very least. December 2:
Up, up, up!
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, December 11:
0.5%. Up. (It could be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and bought examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, December 2:
Lambert right here: Enhance (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, November 20:
Turning upward.
Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, November 20:
BA.2.86 zipping proper alongside. If this information have been delivered in something like a well timed trend, it might be a fairly good predictor.
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Right here is the New York Instances, primarily based on CDC information, December 2:
That absolutely the numbers of deaths are down, however the proportion of deaths is up, is fascinating.
Stats Watch
There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity right now.
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Delivery: “How Does the Panama Canal Slowdown Have an effect on Delivery Contracts?” [Maritime Executive]. “The Panama Canal considerably reduces the time and distance for vessels to journey between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. It usually operates all 12 months spherical, 24 hours a day, and statistics present that about 13,000 to 14,000 vessels cross the Canal yearly. Nonetheless, the area has not too long ago been affected by its worst drought for over 70 years. Consequently, and for the primary time ever, the Panama Canal Authority has needed to restrict the variety of vessels crossing the Canal. The standard common is about 36 vessels per day. This was lowered to roughly 32 in June 2023 and, as of November 2023, the quantity is all the way down to solely 25. It’s anticipated that this quantity might be additional lowered to 18 slots a day from February 2024. In addition to this, the Authority has additionally needed to scale back the draft restrict from 50ft to 44ft. This imposes a restrict on the scale of a ship which might cross by the canal, and in consequence, the quantity of cargo that passes by. With the scenario worsening, vessels are having to attend for much longer than regular earlier than they’ll cross by the Canal. The delays brought on have impacted the broader international provide chain and already elevated prices in consequence. The delays are pushing transport charges upwards in different areas, with fewer vessels being obtainable for longer routes.”
Huge Pharma: “Pfizer shares sink after it resets 2024 COVID expectations” [Reuters]. “Pfizer on Wednesday forecast 2024 gross sales that could possibly be as a lot as $5 billion under Wall Road expectations, a transfer prime executives stated supplied a extra dependable view of its COVID-19 enterprise than it had this 12 months, driving shares all the way down to a 10-year low…. Income from Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine and therapy, which peaked at $57 billion in 2022, are actually anticipated to be $8 billion in 2024, an extra drop from the $13 billion analysts’ forecast and Pfizer’s personal lowered view of $12.5 billion for this 12 months…. COVID vaccination within the U.S. have dropped sharply with nearly 17% of the eligible inhabitants getting the newest up to date boosters due partially to declining concern in regards to the virus, in addition to vaccine fatigue… Citi analyst Andrew Baum stated Pfizer’s administration is performing with rising urgency to handle its weak inventory efficiency. Nonetheless, the absence of promising high-potential pipeline property makes it troublesome for the corporate with a number of Pfizer merchandise anticipated to go off patent within the subsequent few years.” • No matter “vaccine fatigue” is; it will get tiring monitoring the pseudo-concepts. Not a phrase about liabilities, although.
Tech: “X outage breaks all outgoing hyperlinks, once more” [The Verge]. “All outgoing hyperlinks from X are at present damaged. An issue with the URL redirect that captures exercise earlier than sending customers on their manner is at present main individuals to a easy error web page saying, ‘This web page is down. I scream. You scream. All of us scream… for us to repair this web page. We’ll cease making jokes and get issues up and working quickly.’ If this sounds acquainted, it’s as a result of one thing related occurred in March.”
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Right this moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 66 Greed (earlier shut: 67 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 63 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 13 at 1:54:48 PM ET. Amidst all of the chaos and insanity, the Greed quantity remembers fairly steady. Volatility is nice for hypothesis, I suppose.
Zeitgeist Watch
“Why dictionary.com’s phrase of the 12 months is ‘hallucinate’” [CBS]. “There was a forty five% enhance in dictionary lookups for ‘hallucinate’ when in comparison with final 12 months, in line with the positioning. There was the same enhance in searches for the noun kind ‘hallucination.’ Total, there was a 62% year-over-year spike in dictionary lookups for AI-related phrases. Our alternative of hallucinate because the 2023 Phrase of the 12 months represents our assured projection that AI will show to be one of the crucial consequential developments of our lifetime,” Barrett and Nick Norlen, dictionary.com’s senior editor, stated in a publish. “Information and lexicographical issues apart, hallucinate appears becoming for a time in historical past wherein new applied sciences can really feel just like the stuff of desires or fiction—particularly after they produce fictions of their very own.’” • Not simply “new applied sciences”…
Information of the Wired
“‘Biocomputer’ combines lab-grown mind tissue with digital {hardware}” [Nature]. “Researchers have constructed a hybrid biocomputer — combining a laboratory-grown human mind tissue with typical digital circuits — that may full duties resembling voice recognition…. The researchers name the system Brainoware. It makes use of mind organoids — bundles of tissue-mimicking human cells which are utilized in analysis to mannequin organs. Organoids are constructed from stem cells able to specialising into various kinds of cells. On this case, they have been morphed into neurons, akin to these present in our brains. The analysis goals to construct ‘a bridge between AI and organoids’, says examine co-author Feng Guo, a bioengineer on the College of Indiana Bloomington. Some AI techniques depend on an online of interconnected nodes, often known as a neural community, in a manner much like how the mind features. ‘We needed to ask the query of whether or not we are able to leverage the organic neural community throughout the mind organoid for computing,’ he says.” • Oh good. “Mind Perform As A Service.” I scent enterprise mannequin!
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Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are high-quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From IM:
IM writes: “Some fall photographs from the rim of the continent…an enormous leaf maple making its annual contribution to carbon recycling. By Englishman River Falls, on Vancouver Island. Notice: no leaf blowers.”
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So should you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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