[ad_1]
By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Affected person readers, I had an emergency speak with a buddy whereas I wrote this, and so this publish shall be a little bit skinny. After 2:00 I’ve some administrivia to do. I could possibly return after then and add orts and scraps. We’ll see!
And on one other observe: I shall not be unhappy to see the final of 2023; it was an absolute pest of a 12 months, chock stuffed with reminders that we do certainly stay within the stupidest timeline. Given the givens, my hopes for 2024 should not excessive, however prediction is difficult, particularly concerning the future; the world is difficult and we don’t know loads, we could get fortunate, and in any case we’ll persist! And so, with that changed rapture, I’ll see you within the New Yr, which I hope is a contented one for all of us. And keep protected on the market!
Hen Track of the Day
White Stork, CHKO Poodří–PR Kotvice, Moravskoslezský kraj, Czech Republic. Extra percussion and winds!
* * *
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
“Maine secretary of state bars Donald Trump from state’s presidential main poll” [Portland Press Herald]. “‘I’m conscious that no secretary of state has ever disadvantaged a presidential candidate of poll entry based mostly on Part 3 of the 14th Modification,’ [Shenna Bellows] stated. ‘I’m additionally conscious, nevertheless, that no presidential candidate has ever earlier than engaged in riot.” • Right here is Bellows’ bio; she got here up by way of liberal Democrat NGOs, which in fact has conservatives bellowing that she’s a communist. Right here is the ruling.
“John Dean: ‘Trump’s in bother’ after Maine ruling” [John Dean, The Hill]. “The Trump marketing campaign pledged to enchantment the Maine ruling, and the Supreme Courtroom is predicted to take up the Colorado case. Dean stated he doesn’t assume the Supreme Courtroom would go in opposition to both determination, citing a plain studying of the modification’s textual content. ‘I need to see these strict constructionists and originalists get round that language,’ he stated. “How are they going to do it? I don’t know. It appears to be like so relevant. I don’t know what they will do with it aside from take [Trump] off the poll.’”
“The Mess in Maine” [Matt Taibbi, Racket News]. “I’m no lawyer, however I doubt the 14th Modification was designed to empower unelected state officers to unilaterally strike main occasion frontrunners from the presidential poll. If it was, that’s a shock. I should have missed that in AP Insane Authorized Loopholes class. Is there any method this ends properly? It feels more durable and more durable to think about.”
2024
Lower than a 12 months to go!
* * *
* * *“FBI shocker: Agent advised boss Biden laptop computer could possibly be Russian disinformation, however staff knew in any other case” [Just the News]. “The FBI agent who ran the bureau’s Overseas Affect Process Drive (FITF) through the 2020 election admitted in Congressional testimony that he suggested his management that Hunter Biden’s laptop computer could possibly be a part of a Russian disinformation marketing campaign, apparently unaware his staff already knew that the FBI had obtained and corroborated the pc as “actual,” based on interview transcripts reviewed by Simply the Information. Retired FBI Particular Agent Bradley Benavides’ account to the Home Judiciary Committee comes as congressional investigators collect mounting proof that the federal government’s early efforts to determine and block alleged misinformation in politics have been so haphazard as to inject inaccurate, speculative, or incomplete info themselves into the general public area.” • “Haphazard” seems like “errors had been made” to me.
* * *
IA: “Iowa doesn’t matter” [The Hill]. “Ted Cruz gained Iowa in 2016. Rick Santorum gained in 2012. Maybe these finishes helped them clear the sphere, however in the end every man fell wanting the nomination. Huckabee gained in 2008 — and John McCain, the eventual nominee, completed fourth. It’s important to return to 2000 to discover a GOP presidential nominee who gained Iowa, with George W. Bush. The truth is, you may make the argument that if you wish to win the GOP nomination, you’d be higher off dropping Iowa, given current outcomes. After all, that’s prone to change in 2024, and that’s one more reason for Iowa’s inconsequentiality this cycle. Donald Trump, enjoying the function of each scorned incumbent and renegade challenger, has Iowa all however locked up. He’s up 33 factors within the RealClearPolitics polling common, a place basically unchanged over the previous 5 months. A robust DeSantis second-place exhibiting — possibly solely dropping by 20 — will really feel like a pyrrhic victory…. Now, the good cash is on 2024 being a 12 months of unprecedented political chaos. So maybe Iowa will shock us all, each the prognosticators and junkies within the press and the final voters. Perhaps the polls are traditionally mistaken!”
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, plainly individuals are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in reality, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
d>. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Word, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * *
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
* * *
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind harm, together with character adjustments therefrom.
* * *
Elite Maleficence
I don’t understand how Trump got here to appoint Jerome Adams, or how Adams ended up as one of many few sane voices round:
Most of the replies/ feedback beneath illustrate why we’re caught as a society.
Some (too many) individuals: “We are able to’t transfer ahead till public well being and officers admit their errors!!!
Similar individuals (after public well being/ officers admit their errors): SEE!! They admitted it!… https://t.co/h1MzNzHmhJ
— Jerome Adams (@JeromeAdamsMD) December 29, 2023
I’m of two minds on this. If we had been investigating public well being debacles the best way we examine plane crashes, we’d take away the penalizing component in favor of getting good info, to forestall the subsequent crash. However that wasn’t the norm stepping into. It is likely to be a good suggestion going ahead, however personally I feel the dock within the Hague Tribunal is the place for all these individuals. Or, to be good, testimony at a “Peace and Reconcilation” fee. Not that it will by no means occur, as a result of no person from the PMC upward is ever accountable for something (besides the odd DEI dogpiling incident. However milllions of misplaced lives? Heaven forfend).
At the very least he stated “minimal” as an alternative of delicate:
I’ve examined optimistic for Covid. My signs are minimal and I’ll proceed to do business from home in Vermont whereas isolating in accordance with CDC steerage. I’m glad to be absolutely updated with the vaccine.
— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) December 28, 2023
There’s loads mistaken with this completely typical assertion. First, “minimal signs” erases each asymptomatic transmission and the truth that neurological and vascular harm, plus Lengthy Covid, can resuilt from even “delicate” circumstances. Second, Sanders shouldn’t be normalizing “powering by way of” Covid by working; IIRC, extra effort — too lazy to seek out the hyperlink — is one strategy to find yourself with Lengthy Covid. Additional, Sanders must be modeling sick go away ffs.
“I Had COVID-19 and Tried to Change My Flight. JetBlue Gave Me the Final Reply I Anticipated” [The Messenger]. “I didn’t need to fly with COVID and pleaded with JetBlue to vary my flight and droop the charge for switching. I defined that I used to be visiting my associate’s household, one in every of whom could be very sick. Even when JetBlue was high quality with my Covid-positive standing, I’d have nowhere to remain when arriving in California. I requested the JetBlue agent to waive the fare distinction in order that I may fly to San Francisco on a unique day. She stated she couldn’t accomplish that. Then the JetBlue agent advised me the very last thing I anticipated: I may fly with the virus. She did recommend a precaution — a face overlaying. Her supervisor had the identical reply: I may get on my authentic flight with Covid, however the airline wouldn’t waive the fare distinction for a brand new flight two days later.” • No matter “face overlaying” means. Why not simply masks the entire aircraft?
* * *
Case Knowledge
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, December 23:
Lambert right here: Nonetheless going up. As a completely “intestine really feel” tapewatcher, I’d anticipate this peak to satisfy or exceed the 2 earlier Biden peaks; in spite of everything, we haven’t actually begun the subsequent bout of vacation journey, or the subsequent rounds of superspreading occasions celebrations. Plus college students haven’t come from from college, after which returned. So the next peak appears just about “baked in.” And that’s earlier than we get to new variants, like JN.1. The true factor to look at is the slope of the curve. If it begins to go vertical, and if it retains on doing so, then maintain onto your hats.
Regional information:
Regional cut up continues.
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, December 23:
Lambert right here: JN.1 now dominates. That was quick.
From CDC, December 9:
Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services reduce by directors of unwell intent).
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information shall be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, December 23:
Lambert: Return to upward motion. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator.
NOTE “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not all the pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid isn’t seasonal, though CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even entering into the standard of the wastewater websites that we now have as a proxy for Covid an infection total.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of December 27:
Lambert right here: I don’t nonetheless don’t just like the slope of that curve, and see we’re approaching earlier peak ranges (granted, not 2020 or 2022, however respectable).
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the very least. December 16:
Transferring forward briskly!
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
Lambert right here: Discover that for each Walgreens and the Cleveland Clinic, that though the share of positives is steady, absolutely the numbers have enormously elevated; Walgreen’s doubled. This speaks properly of individuals; they’re getting examined earlier than the vacations (and in face of a shit*tstorm barrage of propaganda and peer stress to reduce, too).
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, December 26:
-2.3%. Down. (It could be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and bought examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, December 23:
Lambert right here: Plateauing. I do know that is simply Ohio, however we’re starved for information, so….
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, December 4:
Turning down.
Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers, December 4:
BA.2.86 turns down. This is able to be an excellent early warning system, if the warning had been in reality early, as an alternative of weeks late, good job, CDC.
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Right here is the New York Instances, based mostly on CDC information, December 16:
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Chicago PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The Chicago Enterprise Barometer, also referred to as the Chicago PMI, fell to 46.9 in December 2023 from 55.8 in November, properly beneath market expectations of 51. The newest studying signaled that Chicago’s financial system returned to contraction in December.”
* * *
Manufacturing: “Lacking piece on plane prompts Boeing to ask airways to examine all 737 Max jets” [CNN]. “Boeing has requested airways to examine all of their 737 Max jets for a possible unfastened bolt within the rudder system after an airline found a possible downside with a key half on two plane. An unnamed worldwide airline discovered a bolt with a lacking nut in a rudder-control linkage mechanism whereas conducting routine upkeep – and it discovered an analogous bolt that wasn’t correctly tightened in a yet-to-be delivered aircraft. An airplane’s rudder is used to regulate and stabilize the plane whereas in flight. Boeing stated the aircraft with the lacking bolt was mounted, but it surely desires to make sure all 1,370 737 Max planes in service worldwide are checked for related issues…. The half in query is a important security merchandise, for which the FAA requires double inspection. Which means two units of eyes should log out that it’s prepared for flight…. The Max has confronted quite a few notices for added inspections because it returned to service. Boeing says that’s a results of its elevated concentrate on security, however a lacking nut on an important system can’t be defined away, famous CNN security analyst David Soucie. ‘If the airplane left the manufacturing unit with this lacking half, it signifies the previous three years of security tradition enhancements and improved inspections on important security of flight methods at Boeing isn’t working,’ Soucie stated.” • Yep.
* * *
In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 77 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 78 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 63 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 29 at 1:34:46 PM ET.
Zeitgeist Watch
“College chancellor fired after porn movies floor” [The Hill]. “College of Wisconsin-La Crosse (UW-La Crosse) Chancellor Joe Gow was allegedly fired for producing and showing in pornographic movies along with his spouse after the college found the content material. Gow advised The Hill his free speech rights had been being violated after movies along with his spouse, former UW-La Crosse professor Carmen Wilson, surfaced and the college advised him he was now not allowed to be chancellor. …. Gow stated it was ‘fairly a shock’ after they advised him he was fired since he had a dialog with HR beforehand concerning the movies, saying the assembly ‘went properly and happy their issues.’… He argues he ought to have had a listening to to clarify himself earlier than termination, telling the Related Press that ‘when affordable individuals perceive what my spouse and I are creating, it calms them down.’” • Hmm.
Information of the Wired
“Each Main Pharmacy Chain Is Giving The Authorities Warrantless Entry To Medical Data” [TechDirt]. “The personal entities concerned right here in all probability have extra cause than most to not attempt to piss the federal government off. Not solely are they nonetheless struggling to recuperate from a widespread retail downturn ignited by a worldwide pandemic, however they’re additionally paying off giant settlements to the federal government for taking part in issues a bit too quick and unfastened when it got here to handing out opioids to People. As Beth Mole studies for Ars Technica (and following on the heels of the information pharmacy chain Ceremony Assist is going through a five-year facial recognition tech ban), each main participant within the retail pharmacy enterprise has been handing over delicate medical information to the federal government with out ever demanding to see an precise warrant.” • That’s good.
* * *
Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From CK:
CK writes: “Here’s a shot of a December night in Eugene Oregon. Wishing you all the perfect of the season to you and yours.” And to you CK, and to you, pricey readers!
* * *
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So in the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get apprehensive. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
In the event you hate PayPal, you’ll be able to electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on how you can ship a examine. Thanks!
[ad_2]
Source link
