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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chicken Music of the Day
Undulated Tinamou, Cachuelita; Rio Tahuamanu. Tons happening, together with a buzzing insect and, I swear, a practice whistle.
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Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
Ah, the well-known Biden “empathy”:
.@WaelAlzayat of @EmgageAction lately met with Biden and vouched for him: “He listened, he did present empathy and he promised to do higher, notably on humanizing Palestinians.” How’s that going?
Alzayat is a former State Dept. official and advisor to Samantha Energy.… pic.twitter.com/kmhBvPYiCm
— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) December 3, 2023
2024
Lower than a 12 months to go!
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“No, Trump Did Not Say ‘We’ve Been Waging an All-Out Struggle on American Democracy’” [Snopes]. “Given the context of the comment (he was speaking about Democrats), Trump presumably meant to say, ‘They’ve been waging an all-out conflict on American democracy,’ however flubbed the sentence such that he really stated, per the audio recording, ‘We’ve been waging an all-out conflict in American democracy.’” • What a disgrace, and a lot frothing and stamping.
“A Warning” [Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic]. A banner: “In The Atlantic’s January/February 2024 problem, 24 writers think about what a second Trump time period would appear to be.” • A complete problem! (“If Trump Wins” — “The workers of The Atlantic on the risk a second time period poses to American democracy”). They’ve already labored themselves right into a lather. What’s it going to be like a month earlier than election day?
“Trump Is Attacking Biden With Lies—and Getting Away With It” [Michael Tomasky, The New Republic]. “Will it work? Provided that the Democrats let it…. First, I’ve been overlaying these folks for a protracted, very long time, and that is at all times, at all times, their first reflex: to not go toe-to-toe with the Republicans. To not combine it up…. Second, think about the Republicans in an analogous scenario. You assume they’d say, No, we don’t must assault? After all they wouldn’t. And we will debate till the cows come dwelling whether or not, say, all these Benghazi hearings and investigations had been efficient. I don’t know. However I do know that Hillary Clinton didn’t develop into president, and I really feel sure that simply dragging her up there for hearings, despite the fact that she largely ate their lunch, nonetheless created in swing voters’ minds an image of a girl at all times on the defensive, at all times having to reply for one thing (once more, each single allegation was false, however that didn’t matter).” • Preaching to the choir; the get together of RussiaGate doesn’t have a complete lot to say about mendacity. In any case, it appears to me that by not electing Clinton, an energetic member of The Blob, we prevented conflict within the Center East (bear in mind the “No Fly” zone?), and, trying again, most likely Ukraine as properly. Prevented for 4 years no less than. Not such a foul factor!
“Trump tries to show the tables — however swing voters received’t be satisfied by his ‘conflict on democracy’ remix” [Heather Digby Parton, Salon]. “That is Trump’s one true expertise. He instinctively understands the facility of turning his personal flaws into his rivals’ after which criticizing them for it. Psychologists name this ‘projection’ and it’s. Nevertheless it’s greater than that. Trump is corrupt and incompetent and he’s projecting that onto Biden to make sure. However he’s additionally feeding the cynicism that has overtaken our political tradition.” • This mentality could be very unusual. Trump is concurrently very weak (“Trump’s one true expertise”) and immensely highly effective (“most vital election of our lifetime,” although not acknowledged by Parton).
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“Right here’s the ‘Jan. 6 Jurisprudence’ About to Be Unleashed on Trump” [Julie Kelly, RealClearPolitics]. “Whereas Particular Counsel Jack Smith’s workforce and Trump’s counsel spar over numerous points, maybe the most important dispute will concern whether or not it will likely be potential to seat an neutral jury for the presumptive 2024 GOP nominee in a metropolis that voted 92% for Joe Biden in 2020…. U.S. District Courtroom Decide Tanya S. Chutkan lately set a jury choice schedule for Smith’s four-count indictment in opposition to Trump for the occasions of Jan. 6. She ordered each events to start creating a questionnaire, due Jan. 9, 2024, that lots of of D.C. residents will probably be requested to finish so the court docket can start the preliminary step of hunting down unqualified jurors… Trump’s legal professionals usually are not discussing their technique publicly, however sources have indicated to RealClearInvestigations that the protection will file a change of venue movement within the subsequent month or two. Given the partisan composition of Washington, saturation protection of the previous president’s ongoing authorized woes, and town’s comparatively small inhabitants, Trump may have a robust argument in favor of transferring the trial exterior of the nation’s capital. But a evaluate of Jan. 6 circumstances so far suggests the chances are in opposition to that. Not a single choose on the D.C. District Courtroom has granted a change of venue movement even for high-profile trials corresponding to these for members of the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys, the so-called “militia” teams concerned within the Capitol protest.”
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“US Muslims launch anti-Biden marketing campaign forward of 2024 presidential election” [Anadalu Agency]. “Muslims within the US have launched a marketing campaign in opposition to President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election in 2024 over his assist for Israel in its conflict in opposition to the Palestinian group Hamas. A bunch of Muslim leaders from Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania gathered over the weekend in Dearborn, Michigan to launch the marketing campaign. The marketing campaign goals to encourage voters to withdraw their assist for Biden attributable to his ‘unwillingness to name for a cease-fire and defend innocents in Palestine and Israel,’ it stated in an announcement…. The organizers emphasised that Muslim neighborhood leaders would collaborate to make sure Biden’s defeat in these states.” • Swing states. I’m unsure Biden thought this by.
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“Comer Releases Direct Month-to-month Funds to Joe Biden from Hunter Biden’s Enterprise Entity” (press launch) [House Committee on Oversight and Accountability]. Principle of the case: “The Home Oversight Committee has recognized over 20 shell firms and uncovered how the Bidens and their associates raked in over $24 million {dollars} between 2015 and 2019 by promoting Joe Biden as ‘the model.’ Monetary data obtained present Hunter Biden’s enterprise account, Owasco PC, obtained funds from Chinese language-state linked firms and different overseas nationals and firms. Funds to Joe Biden from Hunter’s Owasco PC company account are a part of a sample revealing Joe Biden knew about, participated in, and benefited from his household’s affect peddling schemes. Because the Bidens obtained tens of millions from overseas nationals and firms in China, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Kazakhstan, Joe Biden dined along with his household’s overseas associates, spoke to them by speakerphone, had espresso, attended conferences, and in the end obtained funds that had been funded by his household’s enterprise dealings.”
“The Hunter Biden Saga Continues” [Wall Street Journal]. “Home Republicans simply took two massive steps towards impeaching President Biden. The primary got here on Saturday, when Speaker Mike Johnson stated he has the votes to approve a impeachment inquiry into the president, which might make official then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s declaration of 1 again in September. The second got here Monday, when Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer made public a subpoenaed financial institution report exhibiting that Joe Biden obtained in 2018 no less than three direct month-to-month funds of $1,380 from Hunter Biden’s agency, Owasco PC. This comes on the heels of final week’s information {that a} financial institution investigator raised crimson flags in June 2018 about what Oversight says was ‘cash from China that in the end funded the $40,000 verify’ to Joe Biden from his sister-in-law.” • These are all small sums, however then the Biden clan are low cost grifters. Extra fascinating is what the cash comes not from Hunter — expensive Hunter! — personally, however from (one in every of) his agency(s), into which cash from who-knows-where flowed (China, most likely).
“Home GOP Reveals Funds From Hunter to Joe Biden” [RealClearPolitics]. “The White Home was unaware Monday afternoon of the newest revelation from the Home Oversight Committee: earlier, reoccurring funds from Hunter Biden to his father…. Hunter Biden’s lawyer, nonetheless, was not unaware of the funds. They had been for a truck. ‘There Chairman Comer goes once more – reheating what’s previous as new to attempt to revive his sham of an investigation,’ Abbe Lowell stated in an announcement to reporters. ‘The reality is Hunter’s father helped him when he was struggling financially attributable to his dependancy and couldn’t safe credit score to finance a truck. When Hunter was in a position to, he paid his father again and took over the funds himself.’ Extra particularly, the funds had been for a high-performance pickup truck, a Ford Raptor.” • Lowell is unsuitable, actually mendacity. Expensive Hunter didn’t pay his father again. His regulation agency did. The quantities, nonetheless, are trivial, solely 2.3 occasions the $600 Joe Biden owes me. Absolutely, with the financial institution data in his possession, Comer can do higher than this?
“Comer mischaracterizes Hunter Biden automotive fee reimbursement to his dad” [WaPo]. “Joe Biden signed for the truck and had it in his title — at a time when Hunter was within the depths of dependancy, had a low credit score rating and couldn’t make the acquisition himself, in keeping with an individual near the Bidens, talking on the situation of anonymity to debate a non-public matter. The truck was used just for a restricted time, going again to the seller a couple of 12 months after the acquisition.” • WaPo recycles Lowell’s misdirection. Hunter didn’t pay something. His regulation agency did. And the regulation agency made its cash how?
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“DeSantis says he’ll win Iowa” [Politico]. Iowa is January 15. Shut! DeSantis on Meet the Press: “We’re going to win Iowa. I feel it’s going to assist propel us to the nomination.” • I dunno. It’s potential that DeSantis can set himself up for a “Comeback Child” narrative a la Invoice Clinton in NH, 1992, and the press would possibly even play alongside — DeSantis is a persistent cuss, nonetheless hanging round, I’ll give him that — however an outright win? I don’t assume so.
“DeSantis Units Himself Up for Humiliation in Iowa” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “Given the numerous troubles afflicting the DeSantis marketing campaign and his two super-PACs these days, maybe he thought calling his shot…. .would function a tonic for his beleaguered troops. However the actuality is that, barring a miracle, he’s nearly definitely not going to beat Donald Trump in Iowa. He trails the previous president by almost 30 factors within the RealClearPolitics polling averages for the first-in-the-nation caucuses. And whereas there have definitely been upsets in Iowa earlier than, nobody has come again from that massive a deficit this late within the day, notably in opposition to a front-runner like Trump with an intensely dedicated base of assist and few obvious vulnerabilities that he hasn’t already refuted. DeSantis’s actual problem in Iowa, furthermore, is to carry second place in opposition to Nikki Haley, who has been gaining on him within the polls there (really tying him in the newest gold-standard Iowa Ballot from the Des Moines Register, NBC Information, and Mediacom) and passing him as if he’s standing nonetheless in polling of New Hampshire and South Carolina.” • Nikki Haley, whose assist is completely natural….
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“R.F.Okay. Jr. Allies Say They’ll Spend Over $10 Million on Poll Entry” [New York Times]. “An excellent PAC backing the impartial presidential candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is planning to spend $10 million to $15 million to get Mr. Kennedy on the poll in 10 states, a considerable effort that, even when partly profitable, might heighten Democratic issues about his potential to play the position of spoiler in 2024….. The tremendous PAC, American Values 2024, has raised no less than $28 million… The states, which embrace a number of battlegrounds, are among the many nation’s most populous and carry, between them, 210 Electoral School votes — Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Texas.” Hmm. Too unhealthy RFK threw away the Muslim vote. Extra: “Marc Elias, one of many Democratic Social gathering’s main election legal professionals, has been retained by the tremendous PAC American Bridge to vet third-party and impartial candidates’ poll entry in battleground states the place such candidates might harm Mr. Biden.” • Elias is an actual piece of labor (Elias was the cut-out between the Clinton marketing campaign and Fusion GPS, which procured the Steele memo).
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IA: “Choice playing cards will give Iowa Democrats 4 choices for president” [Bleeding Heartland]. “Registered Democrats who take part within the 2024 Iowa caucuses by mail will be capable of choose one in every of 4 choices for president. The Iowa Democratic Social gathering’s State Central Committee voted on December 2 to ratify presidential choice playing cards that can record President Joe Biden, U.S. Consultant Dean Phillips of Minnesota, writer Marianne Williamson, and ‘uncommitted.’ Biden, Phillips, and Williamson had been the one candidates who submitted a letter requesting to record their names on the choice playing cards, Stephen Gruber-Miller reported for the Des Moines Register. Uncommitted has at all times been an choice at Iowa Democratic caucuses, and received probably the most delegates in 1976. In current many years, few caucus-goers have chosen to remain uncommitted. The get together will not be calling the choice playing cards ‘ballots,’ partly to keep away from upsetting New Hampshire officers who jealously guard that state’s regulation guaranteeing the primary major within the nation. Though the playing cards will probably be tallied like ballots are, the caucus is a party-run operation, not an election administered by county and state officers.” • Cornel West blew it….
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I should try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, actually, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Social gathering is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Social gathering fails to control, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the potential to control. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
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We get e-mail:
The “most trustworthy” declare could actually be appropriate, for the reason that declare that Democrats have overperformed on the state stage is true (and bonus factors for the Oxford comma). Apparently, “staff and households” is a brand new locution, akin to the horrid “working familes” however implying the potential for staff with out (standard) households; a nod to youthful voters? Or perhaps the change is a random blip, froth within the multiverse, as a result of “we will’t afford [to have] state legislative races fly underneath the radar” definitely isn’t English, making me considering the Democrats have a shiny new AI.
“Class Battle and the Democratic Social gathering” [Musa Al-Gharbi, The Liberal Patriot]. “The important thing schism that lies on the coronary heart of dysfunction inside the Democratic Social gathering and the U.S. political system extra broadly is between professionals related to ‘information financial system’ industries and those that really feel themselves to be the ‘losers’ within the information financial system—together with rising numbers of working-class and non-white voters.” And:
Comparable patterns held in 2020: the occupations and employers with the biggest variety of staff who donated to the Biden-Harris marketing campaign included lecturers, educators and professors, legal professionals, medical and psychiatric professionals, individuals who work in promoting, communications and leisure, consultants, human assets professionals and directors, architects and designers, IT specialists and engineers. Industries that offered the best complete contributions to the Democrats included securities and funding, training, legal professionals and regulation companies, well being professionals, non-profits, electronics firms, enterprise companies, leisure, and civil service.
After all, these “staff” usually are not restricted to the “information financial system” (which I suppose is a candidate for the semantic house as soon as occupied by Richard Floria’s “inventive class” again in 2008). These are the PMC. Clearly, there’s no severe class evaluation happening right here; Al-Gharbi is simply stringing collectively buzz-phrases. Extra:
The growing dominance of data financial system professionals over the Democratic Social gathering has had a variety of profound impacts on the modern U.S. political panorama. Firstly, it has contributed to a rising disconnect between the financial priorities of the get together relative to most others within the U.S., particularly working-class People. As sociologist Shamus Khan has proven, the economics of elites are inclined to function “counter-cyclically” to the remainder of society, which means that developments that are typically good for elites are sometimes unhealthy for everybody else and vice versa.
Because the article title suggests, an amusing reinvention. Anyhow, I can’t bear to learn any extra. Hilariously, we’re all Thomas Frank now, together with quondam id politics maven Ruy Teixeira, whose weblog that is.
“‘Time to Be Daring’: Recommendation for Democrats from a Quietly Highly effective Governor” [Politico]. Tim Walz is the Democrat governor of Minnesota. “Folks typically use the DGA chairmanship as a solution to construct a nationwide fundraising community as they consider working for president, so ought to we learn something into your transfer right here? WALZ: Effectively, I’m flattered that you’d say so. No, I simply consider within the DGA. I need to give again. I’ve seen the effectiveness of it. They helped me in my race. But additionally, I’m a agency believer now that governors do make a distinction. We noticed it in Minnesota, we noticed it in Michigan, we noticed it in Colorado. We see these trifecta states enhancing of us’ lives, and so that is my solution to give again. I consider within the group. And I’m simply honored to do it. However you’re not ruling something out sooner or later? [WALZ] I’ve a buddy of mine who at all times stated, ‘Don’t ever flip down a job you’ve by no means been supplied.’ So, my job is to give attention to this, and to be trustworthy, I’ve acquired 11 races subsequent 12 months and that’s my focus.” • Nudging his hat towards the ring?
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Jacobin as soon as once more endorses Sweden’s “herd immunity” COVID insurance policies” [WSWS]. “Jacobin was a key voice in supporting ‘herd immunity’ from the start. First, in September 2020 Jacobin promoted and interviewed Martin Kulldorf, the Swedish-American tutorial who co-authored the Nice Barrington Declaration that sanctioned mass an infection with COVID-19 even earlier than the rollout of vaccines. In a passage from the interview, approvingly retweeted by Jacobin writer Bhaskar Sunkara, Kulldorff declared, ‘The lockdown is the worst assault on the working class in half a century.’” I’d have thought the lots of of 1000’s of deaths had been? However perhaps that’s simply me. Extra: “Quickly after his interview with Jacobin, Kulldorf held a non-public assembly with Donald Trump to advise him on his COVID-19 response, which centered on absolutely reopening faculties, discouraging masking and selling massive public gatherings to facilitate the unfold of the virus. Additionally current on the assembly had been GBD co-authors Jay Bhattacharya and Sunetra Gupta, in addition to Scott Atlas and Joseph Ladapo.” Tremendous ugly. WSWS has Jacobin useless to rights on this. And: “These forces, whether or not Jacobin, Vänsterpartiet (the Left Social gathering), the Swedish Social Democrats, the DSA, or numerous different pseudo-left teams all over the world, don’t symbolize the working class and usually are not socialists. Their management is inventory filled with middle-class careerists for whom the pandemic has largely been seen as an unlucky accident, an annoyance, maybe a tragedy, however all-together one thing previously and unavoidable.” • Right, although one would assume {that a} Marxist-adjacent publication like WSWS would keep away from the mushy time period, “center class.”
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
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Maskstravaganza
“Little one masks mandates for COVID-19: a scientific evaluate” [BMJ]. A meta-study. “We screened 597 research and included 22 within the ultimate evaluation. There have been no randomised managed trials in kids assessing the advantages of masks carrying to scale back SARS-CoV-2 an infection or transmission. The six observational research reporting an affiliation between baby masking and decrease an infection charge or antibody seropositivity had crucial (n=5) or severe (n=1) threat of bias; all six had been doubtlessly confounded by vital variations between masked and unmasked teams and two had been proven to have non-significant outcomes when reanalysed. Sixteen different observational research discovered no affiliation between masks carrying and an infection or transmission. Actual-world effectiveness of kid masks mandates in opposition to SARS-CoV-2 transmission or an infection has not been demonstrated with high-quality proof.” • If we assume [genuflects] RCTs to be “high-quality,” not a given. This examine is, naturally, being trumpeted by eugenicsts like Monica Ghandi, who performs the standard rhetorical trick of reworking “has not been demonstated” into “doesn’t.” Ghandi, maybe unfairly, makes this examine suspect in my eyes; so does all of the faffing and moaning about needing to see kids’s faces. In any case, whatever the examine’s validity, one would assume that inappropriateness of masking for (say) kids underneath 5 would make it all of the extra vital for different non-pharmaceutical interventions, like air flow, air filtration, adults carrying masks, and so forth. Oddly, or not, the eugenicists by no means take this additional step.
Immune Dysregulation
Gentle breaking by, if a bit late:
Wow even mainstream media is lastly saying it out loud 👏🏻👏🏻
On the 58 second mark “We now have proof that Covid decreases our immune response, making us inclined to infections” https://t.co/veQGk8SKfr
— Jess (@MeetJess) December 2, 2023
Transmission
“The counterintuitive implications of superspreading ailments” [Nature]. Vital! “Our current theoretical research have proven that superspreading performs a profound position in figuring out the best methods to curb a illness outbreak…. Particularly, we discovered that mitigation methods that scale back contacts in public areas are vastly more practical when superspreading is a key driver of excessive common transmissibility (R0). Consequently, the closing of venues corresponding to live performance halls and bars can considerably curb the unfold of a superspreading respiratory pathogen, whereas the identical measures could do little to halt a non-superspreading pathogen with the identical fundamental reproductive quantity. The origin of this impact lies within the statistics of superspreading, which considerably counterintuitively indicate that the majority contaminated people don’t develop into very infectious. Thus, mitigation of a superspreading illness depends on both a) instantly focusing on interventions at superspreaders or b) limiting the variety of contacts that the everyday contaminated particular person has. The previous technique relies on with the ability to a priori determine the superspreader—typically virtually unimaginable [due to Covid’s aymptomatic nature]—whereas the latter doesn’t.” IMNSHO, the entire notion and framing of “lockdowns” was silly. One wanted to have a look at venues and their air flow traits (Japan’s 3Cs) and shut down on that foundation, not on the idea of venue operate (i.e., some church buildings would keep open, others wouldn’t, and the one’s that had been closed would have the selection of creating the adjustments to maintain the general public secure). Ah properly. Extra: “Subsequently, it’s crucial to tell apart between superspreading as a consequence of social conduct/contact charge heterogeneity, and superspreading rooted in organic components, all of which can have an effect on susceptibility in addition to infectiousness. At current, the precise etiology of the superspreading phenomenon stays incompletely understood.” • Effectively price a learn.
“Superspreader” [IMDB]. “In the course of the COVID-19 lockdowns, an Evangelical Christian singer stands up for spiritual liberties by holding mass outside worship live shows.” • Expensive Lord.
Sequelae
“Grey Matter Thickness and Subcortical Nuclear Quantity in Males After SARS-CoV-2 Omicron An infection” [JAMA]. From the Key Factors: On this cohort examine of 61 male sufferers with Omicron an infection, the grey matter thickness within the left precuneus and proper lateral occipital area and the ratio of the proper hippocampus quantity to the full intracranial quantity had been considerably diminished within the acute part. Grey matter thickness and subcortical nuclear quantity damage had been considerably related to nervousness and cognitive operate.” • So, literal mind harm. Alrighty then.
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is perhaps a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind harm, together with persona adjustments therefrom.
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Elite Maleficence
CDC performs “the inexperienced map” trick a second time, inexperienced being way more enjoyable than the crimson it changed (MV):
There are not any coincidences. The CDC map has developed from daring reds and yellows, to soothing pastels in 2022.
The brand new wastewater dashboard options enjoyable navy and grey, as a result of nothing says “emergency” like shades of grey, navy, and dishwater blue. 🧵 h/t @RadCentrism pic.twitter.com/5nuChC29f3
— Laura Miers (@LauraMiers) December 3, 2023
Extra:
🩶@CDCDirector stated the brand new dashboard could be an early warning that ranges of infections could also be rising or falling in your neighborhood. https://t.co/TMedufOuE1COVlD is 🔥in Midwest. Sadly, the warning is muted by Tiffany Blue. We volunteer to assist. 🧵https://t.co/TPp7OoO6FE pic.twitter.com/lyHsiCJee0
— MaskTogetherAmerica (@TogetherWeMask) December 2, 2023
I confess I didn’t see or elevate the colour problem; I preferred the “shades of grey” scale, as a result of it permits me to tell apart excessive ranges (black) from low (gentle gray). However the critics are appropriate concerning the “soothing” agenda, and never utilizing crimson to sign hazard is an actual loss (although for me the extra colourful variations don’t work as high-to-low scales). Anyhow, suffice to say that there’s a huge literature on this subject within the design discipline, which I’ve not mastered, however suffice to say that CDC butchered the job, and for his or her typical unhealthy motives.
Yet another touch upon the dimensions:
Sure…and the opposite sensible graphic design transfer of getting left to proper colour change point out ⬇️ 🦠 as a substitute of ⬆️ 🦠, simply to additional obfuscate any potential PH messaging and affect and make protecting conduct change much less possible. Have to seize viewers inside the 1st nanoseconds
— Mady Hornig, MA, MD (@mhornig) December 2, 2023
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Case Information
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, November 27:
Lambert right here: Case counts transferring well upward (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was making an attempt to hide once they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).
Regional knowledge:
That Midwest near-vertical curve is regarding, though as ever with Biobot it’s a must to look ahead to backward revisions.
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, November25:
Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a robust second, however BA.2.86 arising quick on the skin.
From CDC, November 11:
Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities minimize by directors of in poor health intent).
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will probably be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 25:
Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater knowledge. Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator.
NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, no less than for its time interval, that Covid will not be seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even stepping into the standard of the wastewater websites that we have now as a proxy for Covid an infection general.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of December 5:
Steadily up. New York state as a complete appears to be like extra like a spike. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).
Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, no less than. November 25:
Up..
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
From Walgreens, December 4:
0.2%. Up. (It might be fascinating to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and acquired examined anyhow.)
From Cleveland Clinic, December 2:
Lambert right here: Enhance (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, November 13:
Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, November 6:
BA.2.86 20% of the the full final week, 25% of the full this week.
Deaths
Whole: 1,184,159 – 1,183,754 – 1,183,664 = 405 (405 * 365 = 147,825 deaths per 12 months, immediately’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would love, although they will discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could should determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this specific tranche of demise and illness).
Lambert right here: This quantity is just too small it doesn’t matter what. Iowa Covid19 Tracker hasn’t been up to date since September 27, 2023. I’ll should revert to CDC knowledge. Yech.
Extra Deaths
NOT UPDATED The Economist, November 18:
Lambert right here: Gonna should whack this, too. How does an automatic mannequin not replace? Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.
Stats Watch
Provide Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index Present” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Supervisor’s Index in the USA fell to 49.4 in November of 2023 from 56.5 in October which was the best in 9 months. The logistics sector moved again to contraction after three straight months of development, as companies are promoting off inventories rapidly attributable to This autumn vacation gross sales.”
Providers: “United States ISM Providers PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Providers PMI elevated to 52.7 in November 2023 from 51.8 in October, beating forecasts of 52. The studying pointed to stronger development within the companies sector, amid sooner will increase in enterprise exercise/manufacturing and employment.”
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Tech: “The primary humanoid robotic manufacturing unit is about to open” [Axios]. “A manufacturing unit planning to pump out 10,000 two-legged robots a 12 months is taking form in Salem, Oregon — the higher to assist Amazon and different large firms with harmful hauling, lifting and transferring. Agility Robotics says that its RoboFab manufacturing facility would be the first to mass-produce humanoid robots, which could possibly be nimbler and extra versatile than their current industrial counterparts. China appears to assume so: Beijing lately introduced a objective of mass-producing humanoid robots by 2025. Agility Robotics, which makes a bot named Digit that’s being examined by Amazon, plans to open RoboFab early subsequent 12 months, inaugurating what CEO Damion Shelton calls ‘the world’s first purpose-built humanoid robotic manufacturing unit.’ ‘We’ve positioned a really excessive precedence on simply getting robots on the market as quick as potential,’ [CEO Damion Shelton], who’s additionally a co-founder, tells Axios. ‘Our massive plan is that we need to get to general-purpose humanoids as quickly as we will. There’s a rising backlog of orders for Digit, which the corporate says is the primary commercially obtainable human-shaped robotic designed for warehouse work. Agility has produced about 100 robots since its founding in 2016.” • Kill them with hearth.
Tech: “ChatGPT can leak coaching knowledge, violate privateness, says Google’s DeepMind’ [ZD Net]. The deck: “Merely instructing ChatGPT to repeat the phrase ‘poem’ endlessly pressured this system to cough [barf] up complete sections of textual content copied from its [stolen] coaching knowledge, breaking this system’s guardrails.” • There’s that “guardrails” metaphor once more….
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Immediately’s Concern & Greed Index: 67 Greed (earlier shut: 68 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 64 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 5 at 1:57:14 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes unchanged. But once more!! [Rapture Ready]. Document Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is sweet.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra trustworthy than most! • What’s with this index holding regular? Not sacrificed sufficient goats? No crimson heifer?
The Gallery
Ugh:
A short introduction to Albert Bierstadt, one of many biggest panorama painters who ever lived… pic.twitter.com/KLlnRcrjmx
— The Cultural Tutor (@culturaltutor) December 2, 2023
No matter that is, it’s not a panorama.
The Jackpot
“Analyzing the Historic Price of Catastrophes” [Bounded Regret]. ” If we outline a disaster as an occasion killing 1% of the worldwide inhabitants inside a decade, then 11 such catastrophes have occurred since 1500, for a base charge of two% per 12 months. If we elevate the bar to killing 10% of the inhabitants, the bottom charge drops by an order of magnitude, to 0.2%…. Historical past additionally offers us qualitative insights. As an example, all of the catastrophes within the earlier paragraph had been epidemics, wars, or famines. Additional, many occasions had been multi-causal—the worst epidemics occurred when populations had been already weakened by famine, and lots of epidemics and famines had been precipitated by adjustments in local weather or by political turmoil. Species extinctions are additionally multi-causal, and the frequent culprits are local weather change, pure disasters, invasive species, and people…. From this angle, what are the potential drivers of disaster within the twenty first century? Some solutions are apparent from the record above—pandemics, local weather change, and main wars proceed to be severe threats. Famines are much less clearly threatening, because the final main one was in 1961, however making ready for them should be prudent. And political turmoil, when not itself catastrophic, creates the circumstances for different catastrophes to happen.” • Effectively price a learn. Slightly grim, however I’m a “Give it to me straight, doc” sort of man. These are numbers it’s good to have.
Information of the Wired
“Russell’s Paradox of ghostwriters” [Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science]. “That exact memoir-book was a gag, but it surely acquired me considering of this basic concept of recursive writing. A author hiring a ghostwriter . . . what an awesome concept! After all this occurs on a regular basis when the author is a model title, as with James Patterson. However then what if Patterson’s ghostwriter is busy and hires a ghostwriter of his personal…” • Now throw AI into the combination…
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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From EM:
EM writes: “Here’s a mushroom rising out of an previous sunflower stem. It could possibly be a contemporary artwork masterpiece. ”
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