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China Could Be Sending a Warning Signal for US Earnings Season

January 10, 2024
in Market Analysis
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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China Could Be Sending a Warning Signal for US Earnings Season

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Shares gapped decrease, whereas the equal-weight and small-cap indexes didn’t get well a lot. The completed the day decrease by round 15 bps.

The index was in a position to fill the morning’s opening hole by noon, and as soon as that hole was crammed, the rally stalled out.

That was about as thrilling because it appeared on the floor. We are going to get the public sale right this moment, and tomorrow would be the and public sale.

So, let’s take this quiet day to take a look at one thing totally different.

S&P 500 - 15-Minute Chart

S&P 500 – 15-Minute Chart

Asian markets proceed to commerce poorly, particularly China, buying and selling close to its 2019 lows.

There have been plenty of key ranges damaged within the , which makes one surprise simply how a lot decrease this index might go and the way unhealthy the financial situations in China are.

CSI 300 Index-Weekly Chart

CSI 300 Index-Weekly Chart

We don’t discuss a lot about China inflation, however the report is due on January 11, and the CPI is anticipated to fall by 0.4% y/y, which might be higher than the decline of 0.5% y/y in November.

We aren’t speaking about disinflation right here, we’re speaking about deflation, like the place costs are falling.

China CPI

When the China “impulse” is powerful, it tends to result in a robust US economic system, and maybe one purpose why the and ISM PMI right here within the US has been in contraction for months is as a result of the China impulse has stalled out.

China ISM

costs appear to be struggling on account of this weak surroundings in China as properly.

WTI Crude Oil-Daily Chart

WTI Crude Oil-Each day Chart

So China is one market we have to proceed to be conscious of, and extra importantly, remember that their financial struggles might turn into the remainder of the world’s struggles.

The weak spot appeared to point out up in Nike’s outcomes, and I think that Nike (NYSE:) gained’t be the one firm to see these struggles when earnings come out over the following few weeks.

Please watch my newest YouTube Video:

Authentic Put up

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Tags: ChinaEarningsSeasonSendingSignalwarning
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