Did the NASDAQ 100 Put in a Major Top?

In our final replace from two weeks in the past, see , we knew for the , based mostly on the Elliott Wave Precept, that,

“An impulse consists of 5 waves; thus far, there have been solely three waves for the reason that January fifth low. Therefore, we should count on one other gray W-v to ideally $17738-890 as soon as the present minor correction since final week’s excessive has run its course whereas staying above crucial value ranges. Word that the gray W-iv usually reaches the 100% Fib-extension degree however can even backside at 123.60% (shallow) or 76.40% (deep).”

Quick-forward, and the index bottomed out on “FED-day” proper on the 76.40% degree ($17128 vs. $17093) for gray W-iv and rallied as much as yesterday to $18041 for gray W-v, solely to fall away from bed at present. See Determine 1 beneath. Furthermore, the coloured bins and dotted arrows present the corresponding wave goal zones and the overall path ahead based mostly on the usual Fibonacci-based EWP impulse sample forecasted on January 19, respectively. Please observe we are able to solely define the potentials the markets have, not the certainties. However by utilizing the EWP, we at all times have value ranges above or beneath which we all know if the market continues to be on the correct path or not.

Determine 1. NDX hourly chart with detailed EWP rely and technical indicators

Immediately, the index broke beneath two of the 4 coloured warning ranges we offered to our premium members yesterday. I.e., the coloured dotted traces (blue, gray, orange, and purple) subsequently enhance the warning ranges for the Bulls, which can be utilized to forestall havoc on one’s portfolio. A drop beneath the purple line from present value ranges will strongly counsel that the rally from the January fifth low and even the October twenty sixth low has ended.

Nonetheless, our different situation utilizing the common NASDAQ, as proven in Determine 2 beneath, stays the identical as final.

Determine 2. Day by day NAS chart with detailed EWP rely and technical indicators

Particularly, provided that the rally from the October 2023 low was primarily straight up with very consecutive few down days, apart from the five-day decline into the January 5 low, the right interpretation of the value motion from an EWP perspective is extra advanced. As such, yesterday might solely be the inexperienced W-3 of the purple W-v. As present in our final replace,

“a pullback to round NDX17100+/-100 and NAS15250+/-100 for the inexperienced W-4, adopted by one other rally for the inexperienced W-5, ought to be anticipated.”

However, beneath the purple warning degree (the orange W-4 low on “Fed-day”) will increase the chances the black W-4? is underway to ideally NDX15200+/-200, NAS13,800+/-200. That’s the place the 38.20% retrace of black W-3/c and the Quantity-Value shelf resides. Lastly, please observe {that a} break beneath the October 2023 low tells us the bull market is over.