Crude oil slides to two-week lows but demand looks healthy despite high rates

Crude oil futures fell this week following back-to-back weekly beneficial properties, after hawkish Federal Reserve assembly minutes and cautious feedback by a number of Fed officers helped tamp down hopes for rate of interest cuts that would increase power demand.

Fed Gov. Chris Waller, for instance, mentioned there was “no rush” to chop charges following stronger than anticipated inflation and financial information because the begin of this yr.

The U.S. reported one other construct in home crude shares this week alongside low refinery runs, whereas manufacturing held close to a file 13.3M bbl/day.

“Worries that the Federal Reserve will go away rates of interest excessive for longer overshadowed slowly escalating geopolitical dangers, primarily within the Center East,” StoneX’s Arlan Suderman mentioned, including that geopolitical dangers matter for crude costs, “however they are not at present limiting provides on the planet – solely elevating the dangers.”

However some analysts consider demand has remained largely wholesome regardless of the impression of excessive rates of interest; J.P. Morgan mentioned its demand indicators present oil demand rising by 1.7M bbl/day month over month by means of February 21, in comparison with a 1.6M bbl/day enhance within the earlier week, seemingly helped by elevated journey demand in China and Europe.

Entrance-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for April supply settled -2.5% to $76.49 this week after tumbling 2.7% on Friday, and front-month April Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed -2.2% on the week to $81.62/bbl, dropping 2.4% on Friday.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (NRGU), (USOI)

In the meantime, U.S. pure fuel futures surrendered a lot of the beneficial properties made midweek on Chesapeake Vitality’s plan to cut back drilling and manufacturing in 2024 in response to low costs.

Whereas the plan raised expectations of different manufacturing cuts, temperature forecasts into early March pointed to a scarcity of weather-driven demand on the tail finish of the heating season.

Entrance-month Nymex March pure fuel (NG1:COM) fell for the fourth consecutive week, -0.3% to $1.603/MMBtu, together with Friday’s 7.4% drop; the front-month contract has plunged 40.9% over the past 4 weeks.

ETFs: (UNG), (BOIL), (KOLD), (FCG), (UNL)

In Europe, pure fuel costs continued to drop with no sign of ending, as the worth for benchmark TTE fuel settling -0.7% to ~€23/MWh, its lowest degree since Could 2021, with demand remaining sluggish given delicate climate and the weakening financial system, and storage ranges even greater than the already above-average inventories final yr.

Commerzbank analysts forecast benchmark TTE at 35/MWh by year-end 2024, anticipating costs to extend throughout the yr as Europe’s financial system steadily recovers.

The oil and fuel sector, as represented by the Vitality Choose Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE), closed +0.5% for the week.

High 5 gainers in power and pure sources prior to now 5 days: Western Midstream Companions (WES) +17.5%, Korea Electrical Energy (KEP) +15.4%, Braskem (BAK) +15.2%, Summit Midstream Companions (SMLP) +15.2%, Mach Pure Sources (MNR) +13.3%.

High 10 decliners in power and pure sources prior to now 5 days: Fluence Vitality (FLNC) -29%, Bloom Vitality (BE) -28.3%, Meta Supplies (MMAT) -27.6%, Plug Energy (PLUG) -25.1%, Sigma Lithium (SGML) -20.9%, Stem (STEM) -20.7%, Atlas Lithium (ATLX) -16.6%, Uranium Vitality (UEC) -15.6%, Ameresco (AMRC) -15.5%.

Supply: Barchart.com