Dividend Aristocrats In Focus: Cardinal Health, Inc.

Up to date on February twenty ninth, 2024

In terms of dividend development shares, not many shares can surpass the Dividend Aristocrats. The Dividend Aristocrats are a bunch of 68 shares within the S&P 500 Index, with 25+ consecutive years of dividend will increase. These firms have managed to extend their dividends yearly with out exception, even throughout recessions.

The Dividend Aristocrats have a confirmed skill to boost their dividends even throughout financial downturns. We now have created a full record of all 68 Dividend Aristocrats, together with necessary metrics equivalent to price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields.

You possibly can obtain an Excel spreadsheet with the complete record of Dividend Aristocrats by clicking on the hyperlink under:

Disclaimer: Positive Dividend is just not affiliated with S&P International in any means. S&P International owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The data on this article and downloadable spreadsheet relies on Positive Dividend’s personal evaluate, abstract, and evaluation of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and different sources, and is supposed to assist particular person traders higher perceive this ETF and the index upon which it’s primarily based. Not one of the info on this article or spreadsheet is official information from S&P International. Seek the advice of S&P International for official info.

On this article we’re going to look extra deeply at healthcare distributor Cardinal Well being (CAH).

With 36 consecutive years of dividend will increase, the corporate has clearly confirmed to be a dependable dividend development inventory, which speaks to the resilience of Cardinal Well being’s enterprise mannequin.

Enterprise Overview

Cardinal Well being, based in 1971, is among the “Large 3” drug distribution firms together with McKesson (MKC) and AmerisourceBergen (ABC). Cardinal Well being serves over 24,000 United States pharmacies and greater than 85% of the nation’s hospitals.

The corporate has two working segments: Pharmaceutical and Medical. The Pharmaceutical phase is by far the corporate’s largest, because it represents almost 90% of whole income. The pharmaceutical phase distributes branded and generic medicine and client merchandise. It distributes these merchandise to hospitals and different healthcare suppliers.

In the meantime, the medical phase distributes medical, surgical, and laboratory merchandise to hospitals, surgical procedure facilities, medical laboratories, and different service facilities.

On February 1st, 2024, Cardinal Well being launched outcomes for the second quarter of fiscal yr 2024 for the interval ending December thirty first, 2023. For the quarter, income grew 12% to $57.4 billion.

On an adjusted foundation, the corporate’s posted earnings of $562 million, or $1.82 per share, in contrast favorably to earnings of $467 million, or $1.32 per share, within the prior yr. Income outcomes had been $490 million forward of estimates whereas adjusted earnings-per-share had been $0.22 higher than anticipated.

Supply: Investor Presentation

For the quarter, Pharmaceutical gross sales of $53.5 billion and phase revenue of $518 million each represented development of 12% from the prior yr. This phase as soon as once more benefited from larger gross sales to current prospects and energy in model and specialty prescribed drugs.

Income for the Medical phase of $3.9 billion was a 3% enchancment yr over-year whereas phase revenue of $71 million in contrast very favorably to $17 million final yr. This phase benefited from excessive demand in at-home options and distribution.

Development Prospects

Cardinal Well being supplied up to date steerage for fiscal yr 2024 as nicely, with the corporate now anticipating adjusted earnings-per-share in a spread of $7.20 to $7.35 for the fiscal yr, up from $6.75 to $7.00 and $6.50 to $6.75 beforehand.

On the midpoint, this might be a 25.7% enchancment from the prior yr.

Supply: Investor Presentation

Cardinal Well being has grown earnings-per-share by a median compound price of 4.7% and 6.6% during the last 10- and five-year durations of time, respectively. Since fiscal 2014, the dividend has grown at 5.2% yearly, however this has slowed to 0.9% for the final 5 years. Shifting ahead we do anticipate barely decrease development charges.

We’re forecasting 3% intermediate-term earnings development, from administration’s steerage. Our subdued development price view may transform conservative, particularly with the corporate’s penchant for share repurchases.

Aggressive Benefits & Recession Efficiency

The largest aggressive benefit for Cardinal Well being is its distribution functionality, which makes it very troublesome for opponents to efficiently enter the market.

Cardinal Well being distributes its merchandise to roughly 90% of U.S. hospitals. It serves greater than 29,000 U.S. pharmacies, in addition to over 10,000 specialty doctor workplaces and clinics. It additionally manufactures and distributes greater than 50,000 kinds of Cardinal Well being medical merchandise and process kits. The corporate’s dwelling healthcare enterprise serves over 3.4 million sufferers, with greater than 46,000 merchandise.

As well as, Cardinal Well being operates in a steady business with excessive demand. The corporate ought to stay steadily worthwhile, as there’ll all the time be a necessity for pharmaceutical merchandise to be distributed.

Right here’s a have a look at Cardinal Well being’s earnings-per-share in the course of the Nice Recession:

2007 earnings-per-share of $3.41
2008 earnings-per-share of $3.80 (11.4% improve)
2009 earnings-per-share of $2.26 (40.5% decline)
2010 earnings-per-share of $2.22 (1.8% decline)

Whereas a part of that is recession-related, understand that Cardinal Well being’s monetary outcomes had been materially impacted by its spinoff of CareFusion Company, which was accomplished in 2009. Regardless of this spinoff, the corporate’s phase revenues, phase earnings, and dividends continued to develop throughout this time.

Since individuals will all the time want their medicines and healthcare merchandise, whatever the financial local weather, Cardinal Well being could possibly be thought-about extra recession-resistant than the common firm.

Valuation & Anticipated Returns

Based mostly on anticipated adjusted earnings-per-share of $7.28 for fiscal 2024, and a share value of ~$110, Cardinal Well being is presently buying and selling at a P/E ratio of 15.1.

The inventory has traded fingers with a median P/E ratio of 13.6 occasions earnings courting again to 2014. Nevertheless, this was throughout a time when development was far more strong. We now have used a a number of of 10 occasions earnings as a beginning place for honest worth in recognition of our decrease anticipated development price.

A declining P/E a number of may cut back annual returns by 7.9% per yr over the following 5 years.

Along with adjustments within the valuation a number of, future returns shall be generated from earnings development and dividends. We anticipate Cardinal Well being to develop earnings-per-share by 3% per yr, primarily from income development and share repurchases.

Lastly, the inventory has a present dividend yield of 1.8%. Whereas the tempo of dividend development has slowed, the beginning yield is cheap for an organization with such a powerful monitor report.

As a Dividend Aristocrat, Cardinal Well being is prone to proceed elevating its dividend every year. Furthermore, the dividend seems safe, with a projected dividend payout ratio of roughly 27% for fiscal 2024.

Placing all of the items collectively – common development and dividend yield offset by a significant valuation headwind – our anticipated whole return for Cardinal Well being is -3.1% per yr over the following 5 years. The adverse anticipated price of return qualifies Cardinal Well being inventory as a promote proper now.

Ultimate Ideas

Cardinal Well being is a Dividend Aristocrat that has elevated its dividend for over 35 years. The corporate continues to develop income. And, the corporate has put in place a lot of initiatives that ought to return it to constructive earnings-per-share development going ahead.

Excessive-quality firms like Cardinal Well being have withstood troublesome durations earlier than and can achieve this once more. The historical past of the corporate, its dividend historical past, and its present yield of 1.8% makes the inventory an fascinating selection for revenue traders. Whole anticipated returns stay very low, nonetheless, making the inventory a promote in the intervening time.

Moreover, the next Positive Dividend databases include probably the most dependable dividend growers in our funding universe:

Should you’re searching for shares with distinctive dividend traits, think about the next Positive Dividend databases:

The key home inventory market indices are one other stable useful resource for locating funding concepts. Positive Dividend compiles the next inventory market databases and updates them month-to-month: