Dividend Kings In Focus: Telephone & Data Systems

Printed on February twenty second, 2024 by Bob Ciura

The Dividend Kings include firms which have raised their dividends for at the least 50 years in a row. Due to their unparalleled streak of annual dividend will increase, it is not uncommon to view the Dividend Kings as among the many greatest dividend development shares within the inventory market.

You possibly can see the complete checklist of all 56 Dividend Kings right here.

We additionally created a full checklist of all Dividend Kings, together with related monetary statistics like dividend yields and price-to-earnings ratios. You possibly can obtain the complete checklist of Dividend Kings by clicking on the hyperlink beneath:

Phone & Information Techniques (TDS) lately elevated its dividend for the fiftieth consecutive yr. Because of this, the corporate now joins the unique checklist of Dividend Kings.

This text will analyze the corporate’s enterprise overview, future development prospects, aggressive benefits, and extra.

Enterprise Overview

Phone & Information Techniques is a telecommunications firm that gives prospects with mobile and landline companies, wi-fi merchandise, cable, broadband, and voice companies throughout america. The corporate’s Mobile Division accounts for greater than 75% of complete working income. TDS began in 1969 as a group of 10 rural phone firms. At the moment the corporate has a market cap of $1.7 billion and greater than $5.4 billion in annual revenues.

TDS posted fourth-quarter earnings on February sixteenth. Quarterly income of $1.32 billion beat estimates by $40 million, whereas adjusted earnings-per-share got here to a lack of $0.11 per share. Income declined 3.2% from the 2022 fourth quarter. The online lack of $0.38 per share for the fourth quarter was due primarily to a $547 million non-cash impairment cost at TDS Telecom.

At US Mobile, postpaid common income per person grew 2% for the complete yr 2023. Fastened wi-fi prospects grew 46% to 114,000 whereas tower rental revenues grew 8% to $100 million.

Together with quarterly outcomes, the corporate raised its dividend by 2.7% to $0.19 per share.

Progress Prospects

TDS operates a really low-growth enterprise, as it’s a very small participant in a extremely aggressive trade that’s dominated by Verizon and AT&T. That has led to repeated years of detrimental earnings development. TDS has an 82% stake in U.S. Mobile and basically depends on this stake to realize development.

In recent times, U.S. Mobile centered on connecting prospects in under-served areas with their high-quality community, in addition to market share enlargement, growing enterprise with authorities prospects in 5G and IoT, and bettering community modernization and 5G applications.

TDS Telecom grew broadband income with a rise in buyer connections and expanded the attain of their fiber and 1Gig companies. TDS has made investments in direction of rising its shopper base, increasing into new territories, in addition to bettering their community applied sciences, in an effort to spice up the corporate’s competitiveness.

Nonetheless, rising working bills and impairments are taking a few of that benefit away over time, as we noticed with 2023 outcomes. Along with that, the corporate is making an attempt to construct out its choices in broadband service by way of its fiber infrastructure, which helps ship sooner and extra dependable web to residences in its service space.

Working income has been roughly flat for a while, and we count on it can stay as such for the foreseeable future. Whereas TDS is making an attempt to take a position for development, we consider the corporate is dealing with an uphill battle relating to rising earnings within the years to come back. We estimate 2% annual EPS development for the corporate over the following 5 years.

Aggressive Benefits & Recession Efficiency

TDS’ aggressive benefit, if it has one, is that it has a captive viewers of types in its service areas. Broadband operators are likely to have service areas analogous to energy utilities in that alternative for customers is normally restricted. That may assist shield TDS’ internet-based income over time, however we see much less of a price proposition for customers on wi-fi income.

Customers have rather more alternative relating to wi-fi income, and whereas TDS hasn’t confronted a person exodus, development is low and we attribute that to the extraordinary competitors within the wi-fi service area. The very fact is that Verizon and AT&T have scale benefits that TDS doesn’t, and we predict that its aggressive place is doubtlessly in danger in consequence.

To its credit score, TDS has weathered a number of recessions prior to now, elevating its dividend by way of all of them. Even when we get a recession in 2024, we don’t assume that alone would put the dividend in danger, as the corporate’s income and earnings usually are not essentially beholden to financial circumstances. Moderately, TDS is extra inclined to company-specific danger components, as mentioned above.

Valuation & Anticipated Returns

To worth TDS, we can not use EPS as the corporate reported a internet loss for 2023. Due to this fact, we are going to use e-book worth per share as a proxy for EPS, and price-to-book ratio as a substitute of P/E. Utilizing the present share value of ~$14 and e-book worth per share of $47.90, the inventory trades with a price-to-book ratio of 0.30.

The ten-year common P/B ratio is 0.64, however we peg honest worth at a P/B ratio of 0.45 by 2029. Nonetheless, an enlargement of the valuation a number of may increase annual returns by 8.4% per yr over the following 5 years.

Individually, estimated enterprise development of two% will increase shareholder returns. Lastly, the inventory has a 5.3% present dividend yield.

Placing all of it collectively, TDS is anticipated to return over 15% yearly over the following 5 years, making the inventory a purchase.

TDS has raised its dividend for 50 consecutive years. It has grown its dividend by ~3% per yr on common over the previous 5 years. At the moment, its 5.3% dividend yield is considerably increased than the yield of the S&P. Nonetheless, the dividend isn’t backed by constructive EPS, making it a comparatively dangerous dividend payout.

As TDS and U.S. Mobile function in a extremely aggressive enterprise, the company lacks a significant aggressive benefit. As U.S. Mobile generates the overwhelming majority of the revenues and earnings of TDS and is presently its most vital development driver, any headwind that will present up in the best way of U.S. Mobile will have an effect on TDS.

In different phrases, there is no such thing as a assure that TDS will be capable to proceed its dividend enhance streak indefinitely, given its detrimental EPS and cloudy development outlook.

Remaining Ideas

TDS depends on the efficiency of U.S. Mobile, and it’s now present process a strategic overview to find out its greatest plan of action to unlock shareholder worth, which may outcome within the sale of the corporate or its belongings. TDS inventory may nonetheless provide sturdy annual return potential over the following 5 years.

We presently charge TDS inventory a purchase because of its excessive projected returns, though we acknowledge the excessive stage of danger to the dividend and the volatility of the corporate’s outcomes.

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