Dollar dips on dovish Powell comments By Reuters

© Reuters. U.S. Greenback banknote is seen on this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File photograph

By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The greenback dropped on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was interpreted as being typically dovish in feedback made at an financial discussion board, at the same time as he warned that the U.S. central financial institution might elevate rates of interest once more.

The U.S. economic system’s power and continued tight labor markets might warrant additional price will increase, Powell mentioned. However he additionally famous that latest market-driven will increase in bond yields have helped to “considerably” tighten total monetary circumstances.

The feedback had been “marginally extra dovish, I suppose, however he was fairly cautious to depart the door open to extra tightening if the financial circumstances warrant that. It was a fairly even-handed message, I believe,” mentioned Shaun Osborne, chief international change strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto.

A number of Fed officers in latest weeks have famous the impression of rising Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year yield reached a 16-year excessive of 4.996% on Thursday.

“Monetary circumstances are tightening, there’s no getting round that. It strikes the needle in direction of the Fed doing much less relatively than extra,” Osborne mentioned.

Markets count on the Fed to carry charges at present ranges for the foreseeable future, however are pricing in some likelihood of a further enhance.

Fed funds futures suggest a 30% likelihood the Fed will elevate charges in December, down from 39% earlier than Powell’s feedback, and no probability of a hike in November, based on the CME Group’s FedWatch Device.

The was final down 0.27% on the day at 106.24. The euro gained 0.42% to $1.0581.

The rally within the dollar has largely stalled and the forex has consolidated because the index hit a 10-month excessive on Oct. 3.

“The main focus has been on the Treasuries … and many of the focus and the volatility has been in longer-term yield, which are likely to have much less of a direct impression on FX markets than the front-end yields sometimes,” mentioned Vassili Serebriakov, an FX strategist at UBS in New York.

“It is to some extent the query of are long-term yields rising due to the stronger development outlook within the U.S., or is there additionally a component of provide impression and considerations over longer-term fiscal coverage?” he added. “I believe that’s perhaps why the impression on FX is a little bit bit much less easy.”

The rally within the dollar can be seen as stretched, with the index having risen by 6.7% since mid-July and plenty of buyers already holding the forex.

“Greenback longs are already fairly important and perhaps stopping the greenback from rallying additional at this level,” Serebriakov mentioned.

Issues over the battle between Hamas and Israel stay an element which will enhance secure haven demand for the U.S. forex.

The Japanese yen gained barely on the day however remained close to the 150 degree in opposition to the U.S. greenback, the place merchants see a danger that Japanese officers might intervene to shore up the forex. It was final at 149.85.

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Foreign money bid costs at 3:00PM (1900 GMT)

Description RIC Final U.S. Shut Pct Change YTD Pct Excessive Bid Low Bid

Earlier Change

Session

Greenback index 106.2400 106.5400 -0.27% 2.657% +106.6700 +105.9400

Euro/Greenback $1.0581 $1.0537 +0.42% -1.25% +$1.0617 +$1.0528

Greenback/Yen 149.8500 149.9250 -0.05% +14.29% +149.9500 +149.6650

Euro/Yen 158.55 157.95 +0.38% +13.01% +158.9200 +157.6900

Greenback/Swiss 0.8934 0.8991 -0.62% -3.37% +0.9001 +0.8914

Sterling/Greenback $1.2142 $1.2140 +0.02% +0.40% +$1.2191 +$1.2093

Greenback/Canadian 1.3719 1.3717 +0.02% +1.26% +1.3741 +1.3681

Aussie/Greenback $0.6328 $0.6336 -0.13% -7.17% +$0.6357 +$0.6296

Euro/Swiss 0.9451 0.9472 -0.22% -4.49% +0.9484 +0.9451

Euro/Sterling 0.8712 0.8677 +0.40% -1.49% +0.8717 +0.8673

NZ $0.5845 $0.5855 -0.18% -7.95% +$0.5866 +$0.5816

Greenback/Greenback

Greenback/Norway 11.0070 11.0340 -0.39% +11.99% +11.1120 +10.9810

Euro/Norway 11.6444 11.6321 +0.11% +10.97% +11.7128 +11.6181

Greenback/Sweden 10.9621 11.0175 -0.04% +5.33% +11.0614 +10.8975

Euro/Sweden 11.6000 11.6041 -0.04% +4.04% +11.6525 +11.5688