Q4 GDP Nowcast Suggests Economy Is on Track to Post Moderate Growth

Subsequent week’s official launch of US information for the fourth quarter stays on observe to put up a average enhance, based mostly on a median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.

The US Bureau of Financial Evaluation is projected to report on Jan. 25 that progress slowed to a 1.9% acquire (seasonally adjusted annual charge), based on right now’s revised median nowcast.

That’s a pointy slowdown from Q3’s robust 4.9% enhance. Nonetheless, the present estimate for the ultimate quarter of 2023 means that the US ended final 12 months with a strong, albeit slowing financial tailwind.

US Actual GDP Change

At the moment’s median This autumn nowcast is modestly greater vs. the , printed on Jan 5, when the median estimate was 1.6%.

This week’s report for December underscores the economic system’s resilience on the finish of 2023.

Retail spending rose greater than forecast final month, persuading economists that shopper exercise continues to offer a strong base for progress.

“The economic system remains to be flying excessive sufficient and economists can take down these recession forecasts this 12 months,” says Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

“For Fed officers, the economic system isn’t too scorching and never too chilly, however it’s good maybe for just a few rate of interest cuts in 2024.”