What Does the Recession Mean for UK Consumer Spending?

The UK slipped right into a technical recession within the ultimate quarter of 2023 in accordance with new information from the Workplace of Nationwide Statistics (ONS). The autumn in financial output was steeper than most economists anticipated, with the economic system barely rising over the course of final yr.

Regardless of the slowing economic system, shopper confidence is up on mid-2023 ranges. Rising actual wages is one issue behind this resilience. However one other is that buyers have honed their survival expertise after half a decade of fixed upheaval. The autumn in GDP is a side-issue in comparison with the affect of COVID-19 and the price of dwelling disaster. And just like the revenue squeeze that adopted the monetary disaster, savvy purchasing doesn’t imply that persons are reducing again throughout the board. From meals to magnificence to journey, many are nonetheless ready to commerce up for the appropriate product.

Whereas economists and customers don’t all the time agree with one another, there’s one space the place there may be consensus: the UK’s financial prospects. Most economists anticipate progress to stagnate in 2024, rising by just a few proportion factors. Customers are solely marginally extra optimistic. Solely 11% anticipate the economic system to develop considerably, in comparison with 38% who suppose it’ll keep about the identical.

The time period ‘recession’ nonetheless has energy. However for most individuals, it’s the symbolism that issues, not the measure itself. In the true world, a 0.3% decline isn’t going to really feel any completely different than a 0.3% improve.

What actually issues is how a lot cash you’ve bought left in your checking account on the finish of the month. And right here, falling actual wages signifies that for many individuals it has felt as if we fell into recession for much longer than six months in the past. Crucially, this measure has circled during the last six months. Ever since mid-2023, common wages have been edging forward of the speed of inflation, which means that folks lastly have a bit bit extra slack of their funds.

Manufacturers have to concentrate on points instantly impacting their prospects to know the buyer economic system.

Regardless of the autumn in nationwide financial exercise over the second half of 2023, 28% of customers say that their funds are wholesome, and 44% that they’re not less than doing OK. This headline information hides vital variation throughout completely different demographic teams, after all: 21% of people that have a family revenue of lower than £15,500 are both struggling or are already in monetary hassle, in comparison with simply 2% of individuals incomes not less than £50,000.

Wanting on the longer-term pattern in monetary wellbeing, the disconnect between GPD and shopper sentiment turns into much more clear. Our January information did present a fall in sentiment, however we noticed the same post-Christmas dip in 2021 and 2022. The medium-term pattern, although, is broadly optimistic, and sentiment ended 2023 larger than at any level since mid-2022.

Though sentiment is holding up effectively, the price of dwelling disaster remains to be having a major affect on shopper spending. The big majority of customers are nonetheless altering their behaviour in response to rising costs: 34% are purchasing extra at low-cost retailers, whereas 32% are shifting to non-public label, and 43% are being extra cautious about spending on luxuries.

The modifications are much more pronounced among the many individuals who have been hardest-hit by the disaster: 67% of people who find themselves struggling to make ends meet say that they’re decreasing vitality use at residence, for instance.

Economists discuss ‘the paradox of thrift’: the tendency for customers to chop spending simply because the economic system wants a lift. Mintel’s information exhibits that buyers are cautious. Half (50%) of individuals added to their financial savings within the final three months, whereas spending on big-ticket classes like home home equipment and vehicles remains to be subdued.

However responses additionally affirm that there’s room for discretionary spend, whether or not that’s new garments, a meal out, or a visit overseas.

Rising costs have meant that buyers have had little choice however to extend their whole spending, however they’re making an attempt to minimise the affect by reducing again on luxuries, and switching to non-public label or lower-cost retailers.

The information of a technical recession is unlikely to materially shift shopper behaviour within the retail sector. As within the post-financial disaster years, savvy purchasing is now engrained, and can take years to unwind. Many individuals had already been performing as if the UK economic system was in a shallow recession, and within the first half of 2024 there may be little to counsel a fabric shift in retail spending intention, significantly in big-ticket classes.

Christmas 2023 hints at how polarised any enchancment in retail spending can be in 2024. Common spending on gifting fell 5% year-on-year, and reward spending for mid-income households (£25k-£49.9k), dipped by 14%. Any improve in confidence forward of Christmas was counterbalanced by continued concern round rates of interest and a normal air of warning.

Nevertheless, excessive revenue buyers grew spend (+11% y-o-y), and we noticed extra buying in excessive ticket classes like electricals, jewelry and watches.

The hope is additional easing of inflation and continued wage progress will permit funds extra time to get well, and that within the second half of the yr we might even see a broader vary of customers’ act in the way in which we noticed a proportion of excessive earners do throughout Christmas 2023, upping discretionary spend and releasing the purse strings a bit.

Foods and drinks purchasing habits have already modified considerably throughout 2022 and 2023.

Excessive inflation within the class, its massive share in family budgets and the flexibility to make quick modifications to purchasing habits have already made food and drinks a chief candidate for behavioural modifications, so the information of a technical recession is unlikely to deliver additional disruption.

The modifications in behaviour have been most blatant in pricier segments like meat substitutes and chilled prepared meals, and discretionary gadgets like desserts, the place quantity gross sales fell in 2023. 

The enhance to own-label market share in most classes speaks to the identical pattern. Nevertheless, individuals nonetheless wish to deal with themselves. In truth, 49% of adults purchased premium alcoholic drinks within the 12 months to October 2023, together with 42% of these describing their funds as tight/struggling.

This continues to create alternatives for premium merchandise. Amongst current examples, premium manufacturers Charlie Bigham’s and Wasabi outperformed the chilled prepared meals phase in 2022/23, whereas manufacturers on the larger finish of mass-market like San Miguel and Corona have been amongst star performers in lager.

The message throughout journey, leisure and foodservice continues to be that buyers are nonetheless eager to splash out on these experiences, however that many are having to prioritise. Individuals are nonetheless reserving holidays and consuming out, however they’re doing these items much less typically than up to now.

The upside is that after they do these items they’re keen to spend greater than ever earlier than with a purpose to guarantee they’ve a top quality expertise.

As an example the typical value of each home and abroad holidays reached a file excessive in 2023 – pushed partly by rising costs (and customers’ willingness to pay extra), but in addition by a altering combine as customers prioritise their foremost vacation over brief, top-up breaks.

We’re anticipating this pattern to proceed in 2024 with the worth of the abroad vacation market set to develop by 7.5% to succeed in £52 billion.

According to earlier recessions, spending throughout most magnificence and private care classes stays buoyant, as customers stay keen to spend money on their look, and switch to those merchandise to raise their spirits.

That is true even on the premium finish of the market. In 2023, Mintel estimates worth gross sales of status magnificence merchandise elevated 6.4%. Innovation attracted new customers to the sector, and prevented current customers from fully abandoning it.

Nevertheless, savvy purchasing is having an affect even on this recession resistant sector. Two-thirds  (66%) of status magnificence customers mentioned that the price of dwelling had led them to scale back the variety of merchandise they purchase. Whereas individuals aren’t abandoning the class, they’re turning into extra selective, and lots of will possible be choosing lower-priced status manufacturers.

To seek out out extra in regards to the prospects for manufacturers, shopper and the UK financial outlook please click on right here for a extra detailed evaluation by Mintel’s consultants.